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Chart: GBPCHF, H4 The pound has lost ground not only in front of the US dollar, but also in front of the Swiss franc, which is also considered a safe heaven, even though the RBS is trying to keep it at low levels. From Friday the British pound managed to gain 1% and brought the quotation back to 1.4500, level found right next to the down trend line. On a 4 hour time frame we can see that the price couldn’t close above this round level and draw a Shooting Star candlestick pattern. This … [Read more...]

Chart: EURUSD, Daily From the beginning of this month Euro has gained 4.5% in front of the US dollar. After it broke above 1.32 the trend became unstable and buyers didn’t have enough strength to break 1.34. Ben S. Bernanke helped today the dollar to gain back a little over 100 pips after he said that the Quantitative Easing program will be tempered until the ending of this year, and shut down in 2014 if the economy will signal recovery and will go towards FED’s forecast. No QE, lower risk … [Read more...]

Chart: GBPCHF, Daily During 77 days, from the 30th of January to mid of April, the price of GBPCHF has been in an accumulation area. Here an Inverted Head and Shoulders was formed. The price pattern was broken and confirmed in the middle of April. After the price broke the pattern’s base line, it came back and retested the area. Another rally took place, and new highs were hit around 1.4800. From there a down trend has started which can be limited by to parallel lines. Meaning the down … [Read more...]

I really find the chart of AUDUSD pretty interesting. The Australian economy gave bad signals, so the RBA cut the interest rates at record low. They seem to need a weaker dollar to help restart the economy’s engine. The AUD dropped 12% in 61 days in front of the US dollar and this might not be the end of the drop. It can fall even more if the economy keeps on giving bad news and the Reserve Bank of Australian will cut the rate once more. Chart: AUDUSD, Daily Until the labor market … [Read more...]

Have you missed our friend Bitcoin? We had some articles about this currency you might want to look over if you are interested in finding more about it: Bitcoin, a safe heaven or a speculative bubble? Part I and Bitcoin, a safe heaven or a speculative bubble? Part II. As I was browsing the charts for something interested, I got to the Bitcoin chart and thought of trying the old fashion Technical Analysis on this new and almost Science Fiction currency. It isn’t anything to fancy but, if it … [Read more...]

What a day! By far, the event of the day was the ECB monetary policy and press conference. During Draghi’s speech and while he was answering the questions of the journalists, the EURUSD has moved in both directions. After the end of the event Euro started appreciating and the currency pair was heading for 1.32 hitting the target price for our yesterday’s setup Trade Setup EURUSD on Consolidation Breakout. After a short break from the market, we were surprised to see that EURUSD touched 1.33 … [Read more...]

For today we have chosen an exotic currency pair because its charts look pretty interesting. The Euro has lost 30% in the past 4 year in front of the Swedish krona and now is trying to recover. Chart: EURSEK, Daily The Swedish currency acted as a safe haven for the investors because the country’s economy was stable throughout the financial crisis. With each positive signal coming from the Euro Area the single currency gains trust and try to come back from the dip. On a daily chart … [Read more...]

On our last week Wrap Up 13-17 May USDJPY Up 1.32% we right about a Rising Wedge pattern that it is drawn on USDJPY. Well it needed two more days before the party started and the Japanese yen appreciated as a safe haven asset. Chart: USDJPY, Weekly The price of this currency pair dropped suddenly after Bernake testified in front of the Economic Committee and the next morning the fall continued because of the risk aversion triggered by a very low Manufacturing PMI from China. At the … [Read more...]

The American dollar knocks every other currency to the ground. After Ben Bernanke testified in front of the Economic Committee (find more details on our earlier analysis The Quantitative Easing Program Is Handled With Prudence) the dollar recovered all the losses suffered during the past days. Chart: AUDUSD, Daily AUDUSD did not get further than 0.9840. If yesterday we saw equilibrium between the buyers and sellers of the Australian dollar, today it is clear that US dollar was … [Read more...]

CPI y/y 2.4% 2.6% 2.8% PPI Input m/m -2.3% -1.2% 0.1% RPI y/y 2.9% 3.1% 3.3% Core CPI y/y 2.0% 2.3% 2.4% HPI y/y 2.7% 2.3% 1.9% PPI Output m/m -0.1% 0.2% 0.2% These are the publications from today's calendar. I seems that the overall inflation doesn't look that good for Great Britain. Even though the inflation rate it is still over the Central Bank's target, these … [Read more...]

At some point there were some bigger hopes for the EURUSD to continue the uptrend, which was started in July 2012. Don’t get me wrong, there still are because everything it is possible, but looking at the economy and at the evolution of the price, I would say that the signals are pretty bearish. Europe remains in recession, as the latest GDP shows a drop of 0.2% in the economy (see our last article Europe Producing Less). It seems that no improvements are signaled, even though ECB is … [Read more...]

New Zealand economy has been suffering because it had a strong currency that didn’t help the exporters. The countries interest rate of 2.5% remained unchanged from March 2011 which made the NZD along with AUD a safe heaven, but also a good opportunity for those who are doing carry trade. While Reserve Bank of Australia decided to cut the countries interest rate from 3% to an historical low of 2.75%, to drag the countries dollar lower, Reserve Bank of New Zealand announced several days ago … [Read more...]