From the low hit on 7th of November the Euro started to rise in front of the US dollar, getting itself back around 1.3550. Although both the current Fed governor, Ben Bernanke, and the future one, Janet Yellen, sustained that the US economy still needs the QE at its full speed it wasn’t enough to keep the dollar on a down trend. Today the ECB mentioned in a statement that they are willing to get to negative rates if necessarily to help the Euro Area economy and that ended in a drop in the … [Read more...]
EURUSD Forecast for This Week
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For better understanding the future movement of the EUR/USD currency pair we should take a look over last week’s events. Wednesday we published our scenarios for what could happen at the ECB monetary policy from the next day and one of the preferred scenarios was for the ECB to cut the interest rate. Unexpectedly, on Thursday, the ECB has cut the minimum bid rate to 0.25% and mentioned that it can be lowered if needed. This had a negative impact for the Euro, which dropped in front of the US … [Read more...]
EUR/USD Technical Overview before the NFP Release
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The United States Congress got to an agreement on the debt ceiling, avoiding this way a default of the country. Yesterday the government was restarted after a two week partial shutdown. The markets became euphoric and investors started to sell safe havens for riskier assets. The dollar was sold quickly and the selling accelerated when Dagong, a rating company from China, downgraded the United States to A-. Chart: EURUSD, Daily EUR/USD rallied yesterday from 1.3515 to 1.3670 in several … [Read more...]
What to expect from the Economic Calendar for next Week
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A pretty interesting week has ended. The data published for Great Britain was mixed, both manufacturing and construction PMI’s came under estimates, but the services PMI was in line with the expectations. The Chinese Manufacturing PMI was 51.1, under the forecasted value and the Canadian GDP did not surprise the markets. From the Euro Area the Unemployment rate was 12.00% and the retail sales are up 0.4%, but the ECB remained dovish with their monetary policy. The Euro gained some trust … [Read more...]
EURUSD Technical Overview before the ECB Press Conference
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This week, as I wrote in the last article (What is Programmed in the Forex Calendar for Next Week?), the volatility for the Forex market might go through the sky. EURUSD can become one of the hardest currency pair to trade for the rest of the week. The debt ceiling problem from the United States, the ECB Press conference and the US Non-Farm Employment Change from Friday are the main events of the week. Leaving aside economic data, let’s take a look over the technical analysis of this pair. … [Read more...]
What is Programmed in the Forex Calendar for Next Week?
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The week that has just passed did not bring any big surprises for the Forex Market. Monday the European Flashes PMI came above expectations for the services sector but disappointed for the manufacturing sector. Great Britain’s final GDP was in line with expectations. USA’s GDP was expected to rise 2.7%, but it only rose 2.5%. This bad news was equilibrated by a very good Unemployment Claims. Last week was a lot of speeches from Mario Draghi and from the FOMC members. The ECB president … [Read more...]
EURUSD Technical Overview for 16 – 19 September
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Chart: EURUSD, H4 EURUSD doesn’t find itself in a very easy to read situation. On a larger time frame it can be seen that the price has moved sideways between 1.2740, the demand area, and 1.3420, the offer area. If the time frame will be lowered it can be seen that the price is pretty close to the resistance area. On the four hour chart we can see an up move that was confirmed today by the positive gap. But the sellers have pushed the price back to a former resistance at 1.3321. If a 4 … [Read more...]
Technical Overview of EUR/USD for 9-13 September
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Last week there were a lot of events that triggered interesting moves on the EURUSD. But still, the closing price of Friday was not very far away from the opening price of the week. The currency pair touched a low at 1.3103, after a sudden drop from 1.3220. Friday the dollar started to lose ground again after the Non-Farm payrolls was released, and the week closed at 1.3175. Chart: EURUSD, H4 This week the economic calendar will be full of publications that could raise the volatility. … [Read more...]
EURUSD Forecast before the ECB Press Conference
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Do you remember our last EURUSD Daily Technical Perspective? The price dropped just as we expected under 1.3180 and reached a low at 1.3140. Today the Euro found some buyers who managed to bring its price back to 1.3200. It will be a little more difficult to pass by this level. It is an ex support and also a round number where sellers might have waited. Chart: EURUSD, H4 During the next trading hours, until the ECB monetary policy will be published and the press conference will start, … [Read more...]
Technical Overview on the Forex Majors (2 – 6 September)
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It has been a while since we haven’t post something on the major currency pairs, so for today we have prepared a technical analysis on the most frequent traded FX instruments. Let us start with NZD/USD, which has moved sideways from 24th of June. Now the price has reached the lower boundary but it started drawing a positive divergence. The price action made lower lows, while the 14 RSI has drawn higher lows, signaling this way a possible reversal. Now it would be better to wait for a … [Read more...]
EURUSD Daily Technical Perspective after GDP Release
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Last week the Euro has reached a top at 1.3450, but it did not remain to long there because the US dollar started to recover. This week started with a consolidation around 1.3400. When the problems in Syria started and the US rushed with their affirmations to blame the Assad government the risk aversion was established among investors. If a war is to be occurred the safe heavens would start to appreciate and also the price of oil to rally. This time it took only some press declaration for the … [Read more...]
FOMC Disappoints again, QE Tapering is a Dilemma
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The most important event of the day was by far the publishing of the FOMC meeting minutes. Investors were waiting for details regarding Quantitative Easing. Fed’s Evans, Fisher or Pianalto are expecting a tapering of the QE on September, especially if the economic data would signal an economic recovery of the US. On these meeting minutes the officials agreed on the fact that the QE should be tapered this year, but it was nothing said about September. So even though investors did not get a … [Read more...]
