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This week is almost ended, Easter is here and investors took a break. The Euro-dollar currency pair moved sideways from the opening price to the current moment. Tuesday the price stopped at 1.3800 even though the fundamental analysis was sustaining a US dollar strengthening. Both US CPI and Core CPI surprised with a 0.2% release while it was expected 0.1%. Yesterday the EU Current Account was below expectations, while the CPI was in line with its estimates of 0.5% y/y. The Core CPI of the … [Read more...]

The EURUSD doesn’t stop to amaze me. The quotation touched 1.3900 before the Friday close. During the past weekend Draghi had a speech in which he mentioned the possibility of quantitative easing because the Euro is pretty high and it will hurt EU’s economy. Exactly what we were talking in our last EURUSD Forecast and Price Action analysis. The currency pair opened this week with a negative gap which is not yet closed. Yesterday EU posted a lower than expected Industrial Production (0.2%), … [Read more...]

1.3815 fell yesterday under bulls’ pressure. EURUSD’s price has rallied again and got near 1.3870 near the end of the trading day, right after the release of the FOMC meeting Minutes. I was expecting the US dollar to strengthen, but the opposite has happened. Investors took the chance to sell the greenback when FOMC officials declared that US interest rate might be raised only after 6 month Fed ends the Quantitative Easing Program. See yesterday’s analysis: EUR/USD Forecast And Price Action … [Read more...]

Because I skipped (without intention) yesterday’s forecast I will try to recuperate today. On Monday we had no important economic releases for US and EU. I was expected a low volatility day with no more than 60 pips move and so it was. The European single currency manage to break upwards and touched 1.3747. Tuesday was published the US JOLTS Job Openings better than analysts expected, but it did not help the USD to gain back what it lost on Monday, actually the Euro continued to rally all the … [Read more...]

Last Friday we had a volatile but directionless trading day. The Non-Farm Payrolls was published, as I expected inside 190K – 205K (at 192K) and the Unemployment Rate for US stood still at 6.7%, even though analysts expected a 0.1% drop. In my first scenario I have said that a NFP release inside this range would bring a 60 pips sideways move for the EURUSD and so it did. After the publication of the US labor market indicator the price has set a high at 1.3730 and a low at 1.3672. The week has … [Read more...]

1.3700 was hit after less than a week. The ECB maintained the minimum bid rate at 0.25% and reiterated that it will be held at this level or lower for a prolonged period of time. At the ECB press conference nothing new was brought on the table in the first part. The only clear thing is that a strong Euro will not help the EU economy to recover and will not sustain a growth in inflation. Mario Draghi, ECB’s president, said that the Central Bank is considering unconventional measures like … [Read more...]

As I was expecting yesterday, the volatility rose around US publications. The release of the ADP did not surprise the market since it came around expectations, but triggered optimism in what concerns the NFP release from Friday. The surprise of the day came with the release of the Factory Orders. I was pretty sceptic in what concerns this release, but it surprised me as well as the market. The US Factory orders registered 1.6% rise. These two releases have triggered dollar buying. The EURUSD … [Read more...]

Yesterday economic indicators published for the Euro Area were mixed.  The Spanish Manufacturing PMI was published in line with the estimates, 52.8 and the Italian Manufacturing PMI was also in line with analysts’ estimates. These two happened to equilibrate very well the other two positive indicators published. German Unemployment Change was better than official estimates, just like I was anticipating, and the Unemployment Rate for the Euro Zone was 0.1% lower. My expectations were of in … [Read more...]

After six consecutive weeks, the US dollar managed to win the weekly battle in front of the EUR and pushed the quotation below 1.3800. The US dollar received some help from the weak European macroeconomic data and the speech Janet Yellen gave at the FOMC meeting. CPI y/y fell short of the expectations with a reading of 0.7%. The German ZEW Economic Sentiment disappointed with a value of 46.6 while the forecast was 52.8. The newly crowned FED Chairman, Janet Yellen, managed to surprise the … [Read more...]

EUR/USD closed for the sixth week on positive ground. The single currency managed to gain, in one and a half months, more than 3% in front of the US dollar. Last week Euro touched a multilingual high at 1.3963 because of a high risk appetite that investors had. Right after this high was reached, on Thursday, the price began to drop. The fall was triggered by Draghi who said that euro exchange rate increasingly relevant in assessment of price stability. This, good US economic data and the … [Read more...]

Euro currency has ridden a rising wave which pushed it back to 2011 highs. The first half of last week was calm, but the second half brought some interesting market moves. The ECB press conference has triggered the rally for the single currency. Beside the fact that the ECB maintained the interest rate unchanged, Draghi kept its optimist tone at the press conference. After EURUSD reached a multiannual high it was helped to retreat back under 1.3900 on Friday when the NFP was published above … [Read more...]

Euro managed to close the 4th week on positive ground. Even though last week didn’t start very good because of the low German economic data things have changed in the second half. The 0.8% inflation has risen investor’s optimism and that was seen also on the EURUSD chart. The Euro has passed again above 1.38 key level. Even though it didn’t close the day and week above this level it still a big step for the European single currency. Next week’s economic calendar is full with important … [Read more...]