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EUR/USD Forecast February 17 – 21

The Euro Area single currency managed to close the week on a positive territory in front of the US dollar. The way there wasn’t that easy, but actually quite bumpy. On Wednesday Euro plunged after an official of the ECB brought back on the table the possibility of getting to negative interest rates. After hitting a low at 1.3565, investors’ enthusiasm brought it back above 1.36 on Thursday, helped also by the low retails sales from the US. On Friday the price of EUR/USD got higher thanks to some very good GDPs published for France, Germany and the entire Euro Area.

Next week the main publishes will be the German ZEW economic sentiment, Flash Manufacturing PMIs for the Euro Area and the Core CPI for United States of America. Continue reading this article to see what will be the most important economic indicators released for US and Euro Zone and what are our technical perspective for the most traded currency pair, EURUSD.

Economic Calendar


EUR: Current Account (09:00 GMT). This month current account released for the Euro Area is expected to be around 19.8B. In the last month of 2013 its release was of 21.8 above analysts forecast, same was in January 2014.

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EUR/USD Forecast February 10-14

Euro gained back more than 1% last week. In the first part of the week Euro recovered some of the lost ground from two weeks ago, even though the economic data released for the Euro Area wasn’t that good. The services PMIs were mostly under expectations, the Spanish unemployment was higher and German factory orders dropped with 0.5%.

The trigger of the rally was actually the fact that the ECB maintained the interest rate. The upside move continued during the press conference when Mario Draghi, the ECB’s president, was pretty optimist in what concerns the economy’s recovery.

The US Non-Farm Payrolls was for a second month under expectations. But the unemployment rate dropped to 6.6%, which could be an important argument for the Fed to continue the QE tapering during next months.  Continue reading this article to see what the most important events are and what our forecast for this currency pair is, on short and medium term.

Economic Calendar

French Industrial Production – Monday  (07:45 GMT).  From September 2013 to the end of the year the French industrial production has disappointed investors because of the low readings. None of the last four months, of last year, exceeded analysts’ expectations. In January it was forecasted a 0.6% growth, but it actually gained 1.3%. This month it is expected to drop with 0.1%.

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EUR/USD Forecast February 3–7

A pretty hard week has just passed for the Euro fans. The European single currency has got to a loss of 1.35% in front of the US dollar at the closing hour on Friday. During the firs two days EURUSD remained near the opening price. The Euro was helped by a pretty good German IFO Business Climate. It started losing after the FOMC statement which announced another 10B cut in the Quantitative Easing Program. The US dollar started gaining ground.

In the second part of the week the good German Unemployment Change and the Euro Unemployment rate could have helped the single currency if it wasn’t for the Euro Area CPI which came under analysts estimations at 0.7%. The dollar got investors support only because of the FOMC Statement. The economic data published for the USA was mostly under expectations. Continue reading our article to see what should you expect next week.

Economic Calendar

Manufacturing PMIs – Monday. The Spanish PMI scheduled at 08:15 (GMT) surprised the market in January with a 50.8 reading. This month it is expected keep itself above 50 and rise all the way to 51.3. The Italian PMI scheduled at 08:45 (GMT) has passed the first time above the 50 level in August last year and continued to rise all the way to 53.3 in January this year. For Monday it is expected to be 54.2. The Euro Area Manufacturing PMI it expected at 9:00 (GMT) and it is expected by the analysts to be around 53.9.

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EUR/USD Forecast January 27-31

It has been a bumpy week for the Euro with the US dollar currency pair. It started by dropping to a new low in the first trading day and maintained a low price during the first part of the week after the German ZEW disappointed, but had a fast comeback after the flash manufacturing and services PMIs got published. All the released PMIs were above analyst forecast surprising the market and building momentum for the Euro buyers.

Though it was a very good week for the European single currency it might not be enough to turn the odds its favor. We have an important week ahead with important economic releases for the United States and not to forget about the FOMC statement which could trigger another rally for the American dollar. Continue reading our article to see what the main events of the week are and have an update on the technical view.

Economic Calendar

German IFO Business Climate – Monday (09:00 GMT). This indicator surprised the market in November with a reading of 109.3, above any expectations, while on December was almost in line with the 109.7 forecast. For this week it is expected ti be published around 110.2, a big difference between the actual value and the expected one could trigger high volatility.

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EUR/USD Forecast January 20-24

The European single currency struggled to gain terrain last week in front of the US dollar. It managed to hit the high of the week on Tuesday, when the Industrial Production for the Euro Area was posted 1.8%, 0.2% above analysts’ estimation. It was actually the only economic data posted above the forecasts. The rest of the releases were in line or under the forecasts. The CPI was 0.8%, in line with the estimates, but well under the ECB’s target of 2%. The Core CPI rose with only 0.7%. These will, for sure, put pressure on the ECB.

The US dollar was aggressively bought on Friday even though the economic data released for the United States was under estimates. The EUR/USD currency lost almost 1.0% and confirmed the downtrend on the short term time interval. Continue reading this article to see what are the economic expectations for this week and what does the technical analysis says for the short and medium term.

Latest EURUSD posts on Fundamental Analysis:

15 January Wrap Up – Why Did The Market Rally?

EUR/USD – 14 January Morning Overview

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EUR/USD Forecast For January 13-17

The Euro has just past through a ruff week, after it hit a new low for this year, managed to recover and close the week with some modest gain. The single currency tried to keep itself higher in the beginning of the week after the good German economic data, but was hit pretty hard by Mario Draghi, at the press conference, right after the ECB announced that it will keep the interest rate unchanged at 0.25%.

The European Central Bank’s president said that the bank will keep a close look over the money markets to prevent other damage to the Euro and that it will fight the falling inflation, but said nothing about the means of actions. All this triggered a fall for the EURUSD to a new low for the week, and year, under 1.3550.

On the last day of the week, the balance changed once more. The weak Non-Farm Payrolls (74K vs. 196K exp.) weakened the dollar, even though the Unemployment Rate fell 0.3% to 6.7%. The overall data showed that the unemployment rate dropped even though there were not that many jobs added, resulting that the population participation was poor in calculating the rate.

Latest EURUSD Post on Fundamental: Our Outlook for the First Non-Farm Payrolls in 2014

Let us see what are the main events and publications from the Euro Area that could have an impact over this currency pair:

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