USA
| Final Manufacturing PMI |
54.6 |
55.0 |
54.9 |
| ISM Manufacturing PMI |
51.3 |
54.2 |
54.2 |
| Construction Spending m/m |
1.2% |
1.1% |
-2.1% |
| ISM Manufacturing Prices |
54.5 |
60.1 |
61.5 |
| Factory Orders m/m |
3.0% |
3.1% |
-1.0% |
| IBD/TIPP Economic Optimism |
46.2 |
46.1 |
42.2 |
| Total Vehicle Sales |
15.3M |
15.3M |
15.4M |
| ADP Non-Farm Employment Change |
158K |
203K |
237K |
| ISM Non-Manufacturing PMI |
54.4 |
55.9 |
56.0 |
| Crude Oil Inventories |
2.7M |
1.8M |
3.3M |
| Challenger Job Cuts y/y |
30.0% |
7.0% |
|
| Unemployment Claims |
385K |
352K |
357K |
| Natural Gas Storage |
-94B |
-89B |
-95B |
| Non-Farm Employment Change |
88K |
198K |
268K |
| Trade Balance |
-43.0B |
-44.8B |
-44.5B |
| Unemployment Rate |
7.6% |
7.7% |
7.7% |
| Average Hourly Earnings m/m |
0.0% |
0.2% |
0.1% |
| Consumer Credit m/m |
18.1B |
15.5B |
12.7B |
First economic indicators published for March seem to be quite low. Most unexpected readings came from ADP (fell at 158K) and the Non-Farm Employment Change which was published 88K, 110 thousand less than the expected value. Despite these, the Trade Balance was at -43.0B and the Unemployment Rate dropped 0.1% at 7.6%.
Next week it will start with Ben S. Bernanke Speech and continue with 10-y Bond Auction, Core Retail Sales, PPI and Prelim UoM Consumer Sentiment.
Europe
| German Prelim CPI m/m |
0.5% |
0.4% |
0.6% |
|
| Spanish Unemployment Change |
-5.0K |
30.2K |
59.4K |
|
| Spanish Manufacturing PMI |
44.2 |
46.2 |
46.8 |
|
| Italian Manufacturing PMI |
44.5 |
45.4 |
45.8 |
|
| Final Manufacturing PMI |
46.8 |
46.6 |
46.6 |
|
| Italian Monthly Unemployment Rate |
11.6% |
11.8% |
11.7% |
|
| Unemployment Rate |
12.0% |
12.0% |
12.0% |
|
| CPI Flash Estimate y/y |
1.7% |
1.6% |
1.8% |
|
| Spanish Services PMI |
45.3 |
44.3 |
44.7 |
|
| Italian Services PMI |
45.5 |
43.4 |
43.6 |
|
| Final Services PMI |
46.4 |
46.5 |
46.5 |
|
| Spanish 10-y Bond Auction |
4.48|2.1 |
4.90|1.9 |
|
|
| PPI m/m |
0.2% |
0.2% |
0.4% |
|
| French 10-y Bond Auction |
1.94|3.1 |
2.10|2.2 |
|
|
| Minimum Bid Rate |
0.75% |
0.75% |
0.75% |
|
| Retail Sales m/m |
-0.3% |
-0.3% |
0.9% |
|
| Final GDP q/q |
-0.6% |
-0.6% |
-0.6% |
|
| German Factory Orders m/m |
2.3% |
1.2% |
-1.6% |
|
The first part of the week was calm for Europe. Although the Unemployment Rate rose at 12%, a record high, the other economic indicators were mostly in line with the expectations. Thursday the market started to react at the ECB Monetary Policy Conference. Draghi said the even though the Interest Rate is at 0.75%, it might be cut if the economy will not recover. He is still confident in a comeback of Euro Area economy in the second half of 2013.
One of the main reasons Euro rallied 1.4% was that Mario Draghi declared that Cyprus will not be a model for other bailouts. This brought back the confidence in the banking system and in the Euro Area.
Next week will lack in high impact publications. German Italian, French and EU Industrial Production and Italian 10-y Bond Auction will be of most interest for the investors.
EURUSD rejected from 1.2752 and got back to 1.3047. The weekly close was under 1.3. We might see a pullback to 1.2882 before trying to breakout through the resistance and rally to the next key level 1.3260.
Wrap Up 1-5 April EURUSD Up 1.42% by Razvan Mihai
