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The bulls had the upper hand last week and managed to push higher the NZDUSD quotation, gaining almost 100 pips. The indicators for the New Zeeland economy really helped this time and posted a better than expected trade balance surplus (306 million NZD). The ANZ Business Confidence continued the pleasant surprises with an improvement from 64.1 to 70.8 levels. Also, at the beginning of the week the data from the US were still weak, giving NZDUSD a solid advance.

Economic Calendar

ADP Non-Farm Employment Change (8:15 GTM)-Wednesday. This data provides an early look at employment growth, usually two days ahead of NFP, for the labor market from the United States.

Non-Farm Payrolls (8:30 GTM)-Friday. It measures the change in the number of employed people during the previous month, excluding the farming industry. This is a vital economic indicator as job creation is the major target of the Federal Reserve.

Taking into account that this week we won’t have any macroeconomic data from New Zeeland, the indicators which will have the greatest impact are the ADP report and the NFP from the US labor market.

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The kiwi had a rough week after the macroeconomic data from New Zeeland was pretty weak with all three publications being below expectations. The highlights of the week were the retail sales, which fall short of the forecasted value with an increase of just 1.2% in comparison with 1.7%, which was the expected value.  The downside of NZDUSD was magnified by the data from the American economy that even was kind of weak, the Flash Manufacturing PMI came way better than the expectations. Overall, NZDUSD declined on a weekly basis and retreated below 0.8300.

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NZDUSD had a good week, winning 120 pips after the American economy gives some tiredness signals. New Zeeland macro indicators were mixed with the REINZ HPI being reported weaker than last month’s (-2.4% vs. -1.0%) and the FPI which increased by 1.2% after last month came in negative territory. The Chinese economy helped the kiwi to advance in front of the US dollar with a trade balance way better than the market expectations. NZDUSD closed the week at 0.8369 hitting the best level in one month.

Economic Calendar

Retail Sales q/q (4:45 GTM)-Sunday. This indicator is of high importance as it is the primary figure of consumer spending and tends to create a powerful market impact. It is expected an increase of 1.7% for the last quarter.

PPI Input q/q (4:45 GTM)-Wednesday. It is a leading indicator of the consumer inflation as it measures the change in price of goods and raw materials purchased by manufacturers. It has a medium importance, but a surprise could trigger some action and we could have some volatility.

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The kiwi struggled and managed to gain during the first two days of this week. The price of NZDUSD hit a high at 0.8431 but this gain was quickly erased until the ending of 14^th of January. Even though the NZIER Business Confidence rose to 52, all the way from 38, it wasn’t enough to maintain a higher NZD. Next week’s main important release would be the CPI. Continue reading to see what is expected for the inflation in New Zealand, what are the other economic releases and what are the technical perspective.

Economic Calendar

REINZ HPI m/m – Monday (no hour scheduled). This is the indicator that shows the changes in the selling price of all homes. In November it rose with 1.6% and in December rose with 1.2%.

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