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Will Facebook Have The Same Fate As Apple?

Yesterday, I was expecting Apple to show some good earnings report and to put on a stellar performance, surging towards $588 in two days. An EPS better than expected didn’t matter as the revenue forecast for the second, $42-44 billion, fell short to the market expectation of $46 billion and the shares took a dive and reached $505 in after-market trading hours.


Today we have the social media giant, Facebook, ready to post its earnings report and the question is what should we look at? Definitely, revenues is the key word and for the 4Q 2013 period they are forecast to come in at $2.34 billion, an increase of about 47% over the year-ago period. Another key metric is represented by the mobile market as Facebook is one of the big names along Google and Twitter on this market. Mobile MAUs (monthly active users) are seen jumping from 874 mln last quarter to 928 mln.


From a technical perspective, Facebook managed to make a new high around $58 after it completed a falling wedge pattern. The new high plays the role of a resistance line and it has been tested several times. The shares are 8% below the recent 52-week high, and up 75% over the past year, so the expectations for Facebook are pretty high coming into this quarter’s earnings release. So, if the Apple situation repeats, we can see a drop in Facebook shares price around 61.8 Fibonacci level at $49.22 and on the other hand, a pleasant surprise could be the trigger for setting a new high around the psychological level at $60.

Will Facebook Have The Same Fate As Apple? by