The week that has just passed did not bring any big surprises for the Forex Market. Monday the European Flashes PMI came above expectations for the services sector but disappointed for the manufacturing sector. Great Britain’s final GDP was in line with expectations. USA’s GDP was expected to rise 2.7%, but it only rose 2.5%. This bad news was equilibrated by a very good Unemployment Claims.
Last week was a lot of speeches from Mario Draghi and from the FOMC members. The ECB president reiterated the Central Bank’s position regarding the monetary policy. While a bigger number of FOMC members that spoke last week were expecting a tapering of the QE program in October, Evans said that he will not be surprised if Federal Reserve will continue not taking any action.
Date |
Currency |
Forecast |
Previous |
|
MonSep 30 |
NZD |
Building Consents m/m |
-0.80% |
|
JPY |
Prelim Industrial Production m/m |
-0.20% |
3.40% |
|
JPY |
Retail Sales y/y |
1.10% |
-0.30% |
|
NZD |
ANZ Business Confidence |
48.1 |
||
AUD |
Private Sector Credit m/m |
0.40% |
0.40% |
|
CNY |
HSBC Final Manufacturing PMI |
51.2 |
51.2 |
|
EUR |
German Retail Sales m/m |
0.90% |
-1.40% |
|
GBP |
Net Lending to Individuals m/m |
1.6B |
1.3B |
|
EUR |
CPI Flash Estimate y/y |
1.30% |
1.30% |
|
CAD |
GDP m/m |
0.60% |
-0.50% |
|
CAD |
RMPI m/m |
3.20% |
4.20% |
|
USD |
Chicago PMI |
54.5 |
53 |
|
TueOct 1 |
JPY |
Household Spending y/y |
0.20% |
0.10% |
JPY |
Tankan Manufacturing Index |
7 |
4 |
|
JPY |
Tankan Non-Manufacturing Index |
14 |
12 |
|
CNY |
Manufacturing PMI |
51.6 |
51 |
|
AUD |
Retail Sales m/m |
0.30% |
0.10% |
|
JPY |
Average Cash Earnings y/y |
-0.20% |
0.10% |
|
AUD |
Cash Rate |
2.50% |
2.50% |
|
AUD |
RBA Rate Statement | |||
EUR |
Spanish Manufacturing PMI |
51.6 |
51.1 |
|
CHF |
SVME PMI |
54.9 |
54.6 |
|
EUR |
Italian Manufacturing PMI |
51.2 |
51.3 |
|
EUR |
German Unemployment Change |
-5K |
7K |
|
GBP |
Manufacturing PMI |
57.5 |
57.2 |
|
EUR |
Unemployment Rate |
12.10% |
12.10% |
|
USD |
ISM Manufacturing PMI |
55.3 |
55.7 |
|
WedOct 2 |
AUD |
HIA New Home Sales m/m |
-4.70% |
|
AUD |
Building Approvals m/m |
-0.70% |
10.80% |
|
AUD |
Trade Balance |
-0.45B |
-0.77B |
|
EUR |
Spanish Unemployment Change |
12.3K |
0.0K |
|
GBP |
Halifax HPI m/m |
0.60% |
0.40% |
|
GBP |
Construction PMI |
60.1 |
59.1 |
|
EUR |
German 10-y Bond Auction |
2.06|1.3 |
||
EUR |
Minimum Bid Rate |
0.50% |
0.50% |
|
USD |
ADP Non-Farm Employment Change |
177K |
176K |
|
EUR |
ECB Press Conference | |||
USD |
Crude Oil Inventories |
2.6M |
||
USD |
FOMC Member Rosengren Speaks | |||
USD |
Fed Chairman Bernanke Speaks | |||
ThuOct 3 |
CNY |
Non-Manufacturing PMI |
53.9 |
|
EUR |
Spanish Services PMI |
50.9 |
50.4 |
|
EUR |
Italian Services PMI |
49.3 |
48.8 |
|
GBP |
Services PMI |
60.4 |
60.5 |
|
EUR |
Retail Sales m/m |
0.30% |
0.10% |
|
EUR |
French 10-y Bond Auction | |||
EUR |
Spanish 10-y Bond Auction |
4.50|2.0 |
||
USD |
Unemployment Claims |
315K |
305K |
|
USD |
ISM Non-Manufacturing PMI |
57.2 |
58.6 |
|
USD |
Factory Orders m/m |
0.20% |
-2.40% |
|
USD |
FOMC Member Powell Speaks | |||
FriOct 4 |
JPY |
Monetary Policy Statement | ||
EUR |
German PPI m/m |
0.10% |
-0.10% |
|
JPY |
BOJ Press Conference | |||
USD |
Non-Farm Employment Change |
179K |
169K |
|
USD |
Unemployment Rate |
7.30% |
7.30% |
|
USD |
Average Hourly Earnings m/m |
0.20% |
0.20% |
|
USD |
FOMC Member Dudley Speaks | |||
USD |
FOMC Member Stein Speaks | |||
CAD |
Ivey PMI |
52.6 |
51 |
The calendar for next week will be full of important economic releases. On Monday Canada will publish its GDP. Tuesday Australia will have its Cash Rate and the monetary policy, from the Euro Area there will be published the Manufacturing PMIs for Italy and Spain and the unemployment rate. Wednesday (this time) the ECB will have its monetary policy and the press conference, and US will report the ADP. Thursday Great Britain will release its retail sales and US will publish its unemployment claims. On Friday BOJ will have its monetary policy and US will release the Non-Farm Employment Change.
All these data will be accompanied by the debt ceiling discussions. We are expecting a week with high volatility on the Forex market. We recommend traders to adjust their strategy for the new conditions and keep an eye on the market news.
What is Programmed in the Forex Calendar for Next Week? by Razvan Mihai