The last week of august should have past smoothly, because there were no expected very important events. Still the conflict in Syria has raised the volatility of the markets. Overall the stock market has fallen, the price of oil rallied and touched a new high for the past six months and on the Forex Market safe heavens appreciated the most. On Thursday the spirits calmed down regarding Syria, but the release of the US GDP above expectations (2.5% vs. 2.2% exp.) has triggered another rally for the US dollar.
The first week of September it is expected to bring high volatility especially on the FX market because of the economic releases.
| Date | Currency | Forecast | Previous | |
| SunSep 1 | CNY | Manufacturing PMI | 50.6 | 50.3 |
| MonSep 2 | NZD | Overseas Trade Index q/q | 3.90% | 4.10% |
| AUD | AIG Manufacturing Index | 42 | ||
| JPY | Capital Spending q/y | -2.00% | -3.90% | |
| AUD | MI Inflation Gauge m/m | 0.50% | ||
| AUD | Building Approvals m/m | 4.10% | -6.90% | |
| AUD | Company Operating Profits q/q | 1.10% | 3.00% | |
| CNY | HSBC Final Manufacturing PMI | 50.2 | 50.1 | |
| AUD | Commodity Prices y/y | -11.80% | ||
| EUR | Spanish Manufacturing PMI | 50.1 | 49.8 | |
| CHF | SVME PMI | 55.9 | 57.4 | |
| EUR | Italian Manufacturing PMI | 50.7 | 50.4 | |
| EUR | Final Manufacturing PMI | 51.3 | 51.3 | |
| GBP | Manufacturing PMI | 55.2 | 54.6 | |
| CAD | Bank Holiday | |||
| USD | Bank Holiday | |||
| TueSep 3 | GBP | BRC Retail Sales Monitor y/y | 2.20% | |
| JPY | Monetary Base y/y | 41.30% | 38.00% | |
| CNY | Non-Manufacturing PMI | 54.1 | ||
| NZD | ANZ Commodity Prices m/m | 0.60% | ||
| AUD | Retail Sales m/m | 0.40% | 0.00% | |
| AUD | Current Account | -8.3B | -8.5B | |
| JPY | Average Cash Earnings y/y | 0.80% | 0.60% | |
| JPY | 10-y Bond Auction | 0.80|3.5 | ||
| AUD | Cash Rate | 2.50% | 2.50% | |
| AUD | RBA Rate Statement | |||
| CHF | GDP q/q | 0.30% | 0.60% | |
| EUR | Spanish Unemployment Change | -5.2K | -64.9K | |
| GBP | Construction PMI | 58.4 | 57 | |
| EUR | PPI m/m | 0.20% | 0.00% | |
| USD | Final Manufacturing PMI | 53.9 | 53.9 | |
| USD | ISM Manufacturing PMI | 54.2 | 55.4 | |
| USD | Construction Spending m/m | 0.30% | -0.60% | |
| USD | IBD/TIPP Economic Optimism | 46.2 | 45.1 | |
| USD | ISM Manufacturing Prices | 51.6 | 49 | |
| WedSep 4 | GBP | BRC Shop Price Index y/y | -0.50% | |
| AUD | AIG Services Index | 39.4 | ||
| AUD | GDP q/q | 0.60% | 0.60% | |
| GBP | Halifax HPI m/m | 0.90% | ||
| EUR | Spanish Services PMI | 49.3 | 48.5 | |
| EUR | Italian Services PMI | 49.2 | 48.7 | |
| EUR | Final Services PMI | 51 | 51 | |
| GBP | Services PMI | 59.8 | 60.2 | |
| EUR | Retail Sales m/m | 0.50% | -0.50% | |
| EUR | Revised GDP q/q | 0.30% | 0.30% | |
| USD | Challenger Job Cuts y/y | 2.30% | ||
| CAD | Trade Balance | -0.4B | -0.5B | |
| USD | Trade Balance | -38.6B | -34.2B | |
| CAD | BOC Rate Statement | |||
| CAD | Overnight Rate | 1.00% | 1.00% | |
| USD | Total Vehicle Sales | 15.8B | 15.7M | |
| USD | Beige Book | |||
| ThuSep 5 | AUD | Trade Balance | 0.11B | 0.60B |
| JPY | Monetary Policy Statement | |||
| JPY | BOJ Press Conference | |||
| EUR | French 10-y Bond Auction | 2.32|1.7 | ||
| EUR | Spanish 10-y Bond Auction | 4.72|2.3 | ||
| EUR | German Factory Orders m/m | -0.70% | 3.60% | |
| GBP | Asset Purchase Facility | 375B | 375B | |
| GBP | Official Bank Rate | 0.50% | 0.50% | |
| GBP | MPC Rate Statement | |||
| EUR | Minimum Bid Rate | 0.50% | 0.50% | |
| USD | ADP Non-Farm Employment Change | 181K | 200K | |
| EUR | ECB Press Conference | |||
| USD | Unemployment Claims | 330K | 331K | |
| USD | Revised Nonfarm Productivity q/q | 1.50% | 0.90% | |
| USD | Revised Unit Labor Costs q/q | 1.00% | 1.40% | |
| USD | ISM Non-Manufacturing PMI | 55.2 | 56 | |
| USD | Factory Orders m/m | -3.20% | 1.50% | |
| USD | Natural Gas Storage | 67B | ||
| USD | Crude Oil Inventories | 3.0M | ||
| ALL | G20 Meetings | |||
| FriSep 6 | AUD | AIG Construction Index | 44.1 | |
| JPY | BOJ Monthly Report | |||
| JPY | Leading Indicators | 107.90% | 107.20% | |
| EUR | German Trade Balance | 15.9B | 15.7B | |
| EUR | French Gov Budget Balance | -59.3B | ||
| EUR | French Trade Balance | -4.5B | -4.4B | |
| CHF | Foreign Currency Reserves | 434.9B | ||
| CHF | CPI m/m | 0.00% | -0.40% | |
| GBP | Manufacturing Production m/m | 0.40% | 1.90% | |
| GBP | Consumer Inflation Expectations | 3.60% | ||
| GBP | Trade Balance | -8.2B | -8.1B | |
| GBP | Industrial Production m/m | 0.20% | 1.10% | |
| EUR | German Industrial Production m/m | -0.30% | 2.40% | |
| USD | FOMC Member Evans Speaks | |||
| CAD | Employment Change | 30.2K | -39.4K | |
| CAD | Unemployment Rate | 7.20% | 7.20% | |
| CAD | Labor Productivity q/q | 0.30% | 0.20% | |
| USD | Non-Farm Employment Change | 181K | 162K | |
| USD | Unemployment Rate | 7.40% | 7.40% | |
| USD | Average Hourly Earnings m/m | 0.20% | -0.10% | |
| CAD | Ivey PMI | 55.1 | 48.4 | |
| GBP | NIESR GDP Estimate | 0.70% | ||
| ALL | G20 Meetings | |||
| USD | FOMC Member George Speaks | |||
| SatSep 7 | AUD | Parliamentary Elections |
As you can see in the calendar, there will be a lot of events happening next week, from economic releases to monetary policy meetings and press conference. By far the most awaited will be the ECB monetary policy statement and afterwards the press conference, on Thursday, and Friday the data from the US labor market.
What to Expect for the first week of September on the Forex Market? by Razvan Mihai
