Because I skipped (without intention) yesterday’s forecast I will try to recuperate today. On Monday we had no important economic releases for US and EU. I was expected a low volatility day with no more than 60 pips move and so it was. The European single currency manage to break upwards and touched 1.3747.
Tuesday was published the US JOLTS Job Openings better than analysts expected, but it did not help the USD to gain back what it lost on Monday, actually the Euro continued to rally all the way to 1.3810.
See last analysis: EUR/USD Forecast And Price Action For April 7th;
Today the EURUSD price has drawn a corrective move which brought the price back to retest 1.3780. German Trade Balance was lower than estimates but bulls look to me to still have some power left to push the Euro again above 1.3800, targeting this time 1.3820 or even 1.3800. Continue reading to see what are the main events for today and what is the price action analysis telling.
The following are expected for today:
US – 10y Bond Auction (18:01). This is considered to be a medium impact indicator, but from my experience it doesn’t quite work in this period. The numbers are not usually surprising the market so the EURUSD do not react at its release.
US – FOMC Meeting Minutes (19:00). It usually raises the volatility when it is released even though it is rarely bringing a surprise. Today believe it will trigger a short rally for the USD near the end of the trading day.
As we can see another poor day in economic releases. In these cases the market are usually keeping their directions, so I would not be surprised to see the Euro rallying until the FOMC Meeting Minutes release.
EUR/USD Price Action
The EURUSD price action is pretty interesting. We can see that the Euro rallied to 1.3747, stopped and continued to 1.3810 where it stopped again. It is making small steps but clearly gaining ground. At 1.3815 it will encounter a very good resistance from where I believe it will reject. I would be very careful for a potential false breakout. A drop below 1.3780 will give me a negative signal and I might go for a short to 1.3750.