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Weekly Wrap Up

The fundamental and technical perspective with indicator values and chart analysis over the events from last week for all the major currency pairs: EURUSD, GBPUSD, USDJPY, AUDUSD and USDCAD. Also the Weekly Wrap Up gives investors a heads up for events that are coming in the next week and could have an impact on the market and generate volatility for possible trading positions.

How Did The EURUSD Dropp 1.48% Last Week?

A really important week has passed for the EURUSD currency pair. As we know, in the first week of the month the ECB has the monetary statement and the press conference and the Non-Farm Payrolls is published for the United States.

At this press conference Mario Draghi pointed some things regarding the positioning of the ECB in what concerns the economy of the Euro Zone:

  • Euro Area growth risks remain on the downside
  • Inflation risks are broadly balanced, inflation rates may be volatile throughout the year
  • Economy should recover at subdued pace
  • 0.50% interest rate was maintained, but it is not the lower bound
  • The rates to stay low for extended period of time
  • ECB keeps an open mind on negative deposit rates

If this wasn’t enough, S&P lowered Portugal’s outlook to negative from stable. The country’s current grade is BB and rating company sees one in three chance of ratings cut within the next 12 months, and the also see a deficit about 5.8% of the GDP for 2013.

For the United States the story is a bit different. Several weeks ago Ben Bernanke said that the Federal Reserve is preparing for tapering the Quantitative Easing Program by the end of 2013, and stop it in 2014. The conditions for these measures were that the economy to head towards their forecast and the unemployment rate to drop to or under 7%.

One day after the ECB’s press conference, the Non-Farm Payrolls was published. It surprised the market with a value of 195K vs. 165K expected, and the previous value revised to 195K. Even though the Unemployment Rate did not come as expected and stagnated at 7.6%, the biggest impact came from the NFP.

eurusd-at-1.28-support-after-ecb-and-nfp-07.07.2013-1

Chart: EURUSD, Daily

This week Euro dropped almost 1.5%. The biggest fall took place on Thursday and Friday. The speech of Mario Draghi did not encourage the investors to buy euros and the dollar continued its trend. Next day, the economic data showed an improvement in the US labor market, the dollar continued to appreciate.

From the technical point of view EURUSD got to a good support area, formed by 1.28 level and a trend line. The probability for the down trend to continue it is quite high. If this area will fall the next good support it is at 1.2650. Before a breakout we could see a bounce back to 1.29 or somewhere near 1.30.

Hot publications on Investazor this week

Investazor.com has a new look starting with this week that is intended to help you find easier our publications on the site.
GBPUSD was in our attention for a while now. It has given bullish signals, but the strength of the dollar broke all the technical analysis rules and continued the downtrend. See our two analyses: FX: GBPUSD Is History Repeating Itself? And FX: Today’s Wrap Up, GBPUSD Signaling Reversal.
We started a new category, Forex Strategies. Here we started with the first part of Forex Scalping – Complete Beginner to Advanced Strategy Guide which we will continue and add more and more interesting strategies that you could try.
The economic news will keep you up to date with the most interesting changes in the economies. This week we talked about BOE and ECB maintained the interest rate and Euro: On Safe Hands.

You shouldn’t have missed this on Investazor

Another week has passed with some good market opportunities.

We posted for you on Investazor some interesting analysis and market news. If you didn’t check our site we remind you of some posts in this publication.

For the stock market we posted Price for Alcoa Inc. Fell Under a Critical Support Level and the Trade Setup Citrix Systems (CTXS) Retested the Trend Line which already touched the mid point to price target.

For the Forex market we found interesting GBPCHF Signals a Bearish Move, the price touched the first target and almost hit the full target of the analysis. The same fate had the analysis on USDJPY – USDJPY is Consolidating in a Symmetrical Triangle. The first target hit and the price has to go 40 more pips to hit the second one.

Getting to the news, you could read about China Takes Bold Measures and Euro: Signs of Stability?

Wrap Up 17-21 June EURUSD Down 1.69%

A very interesting week has just passed. The economic data had come mostly above expectations once again.

The service PMIs were all above expectations from the Euro Area. France Manufacturing PMI came above expectations, German’s was under the forecast and the one for the entire Euro Area was in line with expectations. ZEW Economic Sentiment was lower for Germany and above expectations for Europe.

From the US real estate we had a lower Housing Starts indicator but a very good Existing Home Sales. Another surprise was the Philly Fed Manufacturing Index that was estimated at -0.6 and was published 12.5.

Again the economic data seems to be equilibrated, but still the dollar had gained 1.69%. This happened after Ben Bernanke said that they plan to adjust the Quantitative Easing program by the end of 2013 and end it by 2014 if the economy will go as expected. This news had boosted buys for the greenback and made investors to go short on stocks. The capital market fell drastically after this announcement.

wrap-up-eurusd-down-23.06.2013

Chart: EURUSD, Weekly

The same story told from the technical analysis point of view is something like this. EURUSD dropped almost 2 percent last week and we can see an interesting candlestick formation, Bearish Engulfing. This could announce further falls for the euro. The price has stopped for the moment at 50% retrace from the up move. The uptrend would still be in place until the 1.2800 low will broke. Another support area it is found at the 61.8 Fibonacci retrace, near 1.3000.

Hottest Subjects on Investazor this Week

This week we published many interesting materials for the different markets.

Monday we started with a Forex currency pair: FX: GBPCHF Takes a Second Test on the Head and Shoulder’s Baseline, in this analysis we favored two scenarios, and the market went with our backup and touched the lower target at 1.43. On the EURUSD analysis Is it really EURUSD in a Free Fall, or Just a Correction? , we didn’t think that a free fall would start, but it seems that the dollar has gained a lot in only three days. The uptrend is not yet finished so we might see an interesting recovery for the Euro.

Activision Blizzard Inc.(ATVI) Drawn a Broadening Formation in this article you will find that ATVI is our stock of the week. The breakout was confirmed and the price continued on the downside to our target.

You shouldn’t have missed our fast news. This week we saw that G8 – Calm Discussions and that Mario Draghi is Confident or Not. After the FOMC statement we realized that the U.S. Economy Is Ready.

Wrap up 10-14 June EURUSD up 1.15%

Another week has passed and the single European currency has continued to gain in front of the US dollar, even though the economic releases were quite balanced.

Europe reported a very good industrial production, above expectations. France surprised also with a 2% growth above the analysts forecasts. USA reported stagnation in this sector, but better retail sales, it gained 0.6%. The US Unemployment claims dropped at 334K and it was better than expected ad better than the previous number.

The inflation reports showed a Core CPI of 1.2% for Europe, in line with the forecast, and a Producer Price Index of 0.5%, 0.4% above expectations, for USA. Last week was closed with the release of the UoM Consumer Index. This indicator was pretty disappointing because it dropped to 82.7.

wrap-up-eurusd-heading-for-prz-16.06.2013

Chart: EURUSD, Daily

The technical analysis looks a little bit better than the macroeconomic one. Last Sunday the price set under 1.33 and we were thinking about a Bearish Bat with the PRZ between 1.35 and 1.36. Today the price is under 1.34. If it will break this barrier too, than the probability for the PRZ to be hit will be higher.