This week is almost ended, Easter is here and investors took a break. The Euro-dollar currency pair moved sideways from the opening price to the current moment. Tuesday the price stopped at 1.3800 even though the fundamental analysis was sustaining a US dollar strengthening. Both US CPI and Core CPI surprised with a 0.2% release while it was expected 0.1%.
Yesterday the EU Current Account was below expectations, while the CPI was in line with its estimates of 0.5% y/y. The Core CPI of the European Union did not meet analysts’ median estimation of 0.8% growth on an annual basis. While EU data was rather disappointing, the US releases surprised with some good numbers. Building Permits met their expectations as well as Housing Starts; Capacity Utilization Rate and the Industrial Production went above analysts’ expectations and should have triggered some buying for the US dollar, but it didn’t.
See our last analysis: EUR/USD Forecast And Price Action For April 15th;
The price of EURUSD moved sideways between 1.3800 and 1.3850 suggesting that investors are not that active in this period. This morning the European single currency managed to comeback to 1.3840. Now it is trading flat in a 10 pips range. German PPI was negative, -0.3%, but no one seems to care. See what are is expected to be published next and what would price action suggest.
The following are expected today:
US – Unemployment Claims (13:30). If it is Thursday the Unemployment Claims is published for the US labor market. As I said in my past analysis of this indicator, even if it is considered to be a medium to high impact indicators, it doesn’t influence investors that much in this period.
US – Philly Fed Manufacturing Index (15:00). This indicator still have an important impact on the market. Last month was published two times its expected value and today it is estimated to be around 9.6 points. A big surprise, like last month, would trigger some volatility.
In my opinion EURUSD will not do anything surprising this week. I believe that the price is under some buying pressure and it will close the gap. You will find more about its price action in the next paragraph.
EUR/USD Price Action
The price has drawn a symmetrical triangle. Not it is traded near the upper line of this pattern. A break followed by a close above the upper line would signal a rally which could target 1.3880. A break below the local support would only signal a possible retest on the lower line of the triangle. The volatility is pretty low, I would be very careful at a false breakout above the upper line and a comeback inside the pattern.