1.3700 was hit after less than a week. The ECB maintained the minimum bid rate at 0.25% and reiterated that it will be held at this level or lower for a prolonged period of time. At the ECB press conference nothing new was brought on the table in the first part. The only clear thing is that a strong Euro will not help the EU economy to recover and will not sustain a growth in inflation. Mario Draghi, ECB’s president, said that the Central Bank is considering unconventional measures like quantitative easing to help price stability.
The ECB press conference has brought high volatility for the EURUSD currency pair, like expected, and it was also the main reason for the Euro drop. The US releases were all below market expectations. Trade Balance, Unemployment claims (the first time in the last 5 weeks) and ISM Non-Manufacturing PMI have disappointed. Even so the dollar continued to strengthen until the end of the trading day.
See yesterday analysis: EUR/USD Forecast And Price Action for April 3rd;
Today Germany released its Factory Orders. This economic sector has risen 0.6% for the past month, but it was close to the market expectations. This morning the Euro continued its drop and found itself below 1.3700. For the Euro Area there will be no more publications, but continue reading this article to see what are the most important releases for today and what is the price action telling.
The following are expected next:
US – Non-Farm Employment Change (13:30). Known also as NFP, this is one of the most important labor market releases from the US. It is known to have great impact on the EURUSD, especially in these times when the Federal Reserve is closely watching the work force evolution. Analysts’ expectations for today are of 199K, higher than last month release.
US – Unemployment Rate (13:30). In the same time with the Non-Farm publication, the US Unemployment Rate will be released. In January it dropped 0.3% from 7%. In February another 0.1% drop was registered and in March the rate got back to 6.7% like at the beginning of 2014. For April the rate is expected to drop back to 6.6%.
NFP Special Edition
My scenario for the NFP release are:
- 190K – 205K would be close to what markets are already expecting. In this case I would see a 60 – 70 pips sideways move, but I would take a closer look at the Unemployment Rate which is expected to drop at 6.6%.
- Above 205K would be a surprise for the market and the US dollar might continue to rally to the next important support at 1.3650. This move would be also sustained by the current context.
- Below 190K would be a negative surprise and the price of EURUSD will react. An upside target for a Euro rally would be around 1.3750 and the next at 13770.
For this release I am expecting a number inside 190K – 205K range.
EUR/USD Price Action
The price of the EURUSD has rallied yesterday in only one hour to 1.3800 and back. The volatility was pretty high but the main direction remained on the downside. After it broke 1.3747 it fell all the way to 1.3700 where it found a support. On the short term, a break above the local resistance at 1.3720/25 would signal a rally back to 1.3747. Another fell below current support would mean bears are in control and the dollar could go all the way to 1.3645 or lower to 1.3600.