The price made a false breakout below 1.3745, yesterday, and rallied very fast all the way to 1.3800. It did not close, on a 60 minutes chart, above this round level so it dropped back to 1.3761. A close below this local support could mean that the US dollar could get back to 1.3747. A close above the 200 EMA would be a positive signal which would confirm the Falling Wedge. Upside target is 1.3815.
Even though Technical analysis is important and can help us trade profitable, it is very important to keep our eyes open for important economic releases which could move the market in an unexpected direction.
For today the most important indicators programed to be released are:
EU – Spanish Manufacturing PMI (08:15). In January and February, 2014, the Spanish manufacturing PMI was above estimation. In March it has been published under analysts’ forecasts. Today it is expected to be around 52.9. A release above this number would help the Euro gain, while a lower number could mean a drop for the European single currency.
EU – Italian Manufacturing PMI (08:45). The Italian PMI from the manufacturing sector had the same trajectory like the Spanish one. I was better for January and February and lower in March. First day of April is expected to bring a 52.2 release for the Italian PMI. This indicator has a medium to low impact on the EURUSD currency pair.
EU – German Unemployment Change (08:55). The beginning of the year was pretty good for the German labor market. The first three releases of this year were under analysts’ estimates. On a very short term a good release helps Euro gain. Today it is expected for this release to be around -0.9K. I would not be surprised to see a bigger drop.
EU – Unemployment Rate (10:00). The European unemployment rate did not change for the past two months. It is expected to remain at the same level in April. A 0.1% drop would be a positive surprise and the Euro might rally.
US – ISM Manufacturing PMI (15:00). For the United States economy, today it is expected to be released only the ISM manufacturing PMI. This is an important leading indicator and has a medium to high impact on the EURUSD. This month it is expected to be around 54.2, but if it will be higher than a rally is most probable for the US dollar.
All hours are GMT.
Better than expected releases for the European economy would send the EURUSD again above 1.3800, while worse than expected release would trigger Euro selling and we might see this currency pair quotation back under 1.3745. Mixed data could keep the EURUSD between 1.3745 and 1.3800.15.