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What is Programmed in the Forex Calendar for Next Week?

By Razvan Mihai

The week that has just passed did not bring any big surprises for the Forex Market. Monday the European Flashes PMI came above expectations for the services sector but disappointed for the manufacturing sector. Great Britain’s final GDP was in line with expectations. USA’s GDP was expected to rise 2.7%, but it only rose 2.5%. This bad news was equilibrated by a very good Unemployment Claims.

Last week was a lot of speeches from Mario Draghi and from the FOMC members. The ECB president reiterated the Central Bank’s position regarding the monetary policy. While a bigger number of FOMC members that spoke last week were expecting a tapering of the QE program in October, Evans said that he will not be surprised if Federal Reserve will continue not taking any action.

Date

Currency

Forecast

Previous

MonSep 30

NZD

 Building Consents m/m

-0.80%

JPY

 Prelim Industrial Production m/m

-0.20%

3.40%

JPY

 Retail Sales y/y

1.10%

-0.30%

NZD

 ANZ Business Confidence

48.1

AUD

 Private Sector Credit m/m

0.40%

0.40%

CNY

 HSBC Final Manufacturing PMI

51.2

51.2

EUR

 German Retail Sales m/m

0.90%

-1.40%

GBP

 Net Lending to Individuals m/m

1.6B

1.3B

EUR

 CPI Flash Estimate y/y

1.30%

1.30%

CAD

 GDP m/m

0.60%

-0.50%

CAD

 RMPI m/m

3.20%

4.20%

USD

 Chicago PMI

54.5

53

TueOct 1

JPY

 Household Spending y/y

0.20%

0.10%

JPY

 Tankan Manufacturing Index

7

4

JPY

 Tankan Non-Manufacturing Index

14

12

CNY

 Manufacturing PMI

51.6

51

AUD

 Retail Sales m/m

0.30%

0.10%

JPY

 Average Cash Earnings y/y

-0.20%

0.10%

AUD

 Cash Rate

2.50%

2.50%

AUD

 RBA Rate Statement

EUR

 Spanish Manufacturing PMI

51.6

51.1

CHF

 SVME PMI

54.9

54.6

EUR

 Italian Manufacturing PMI

51.2

51.3

EUR

 German Unemployment Change

-5K

7K

GBP

 Manufacturing PMI

57.5

57.2

EUR

 Unemployment Rate

12.10%

12.10%

USD

 ISM Manufacturing PMI

55.3

55.7

WedOct 2

AUD

 HIA New Home Sales m/m

-4.70%

AUD

 Building Approvals m/m

-0.70%

10.80%

AUD

 Trade Balance

-0.45B

-0.77B

EUR

 Spanish Unemployment Change

12.3K

0.0K

GBP

 Halifax HPI m/m

0.60%

0.40%

GBP

 Construction PMI

60.1

59.1

EUR

 German 10-y Bond Auction

2.06|1.3

EUR

 Minimum Bid Rate

0.50%

0.50%

USD

 ADP Non-Farm Employment Change

177K

176K

EUR

 ECB Press Conference

USD

 Crude Oil Inventories

2.6M

USD

 FOMC Member Rosengren Speaks

USD

 Fed Chairman Bernanke Speaks

ThuOct 3

CNY

 Non-Manufacturing PMI

53.9

EUR

 Spanish Services PMI

50.9

50.4

EUR

 Italian Services PMI

49.3

48.8

GBP

 Services PMI

60.4

60.5

EUR

 Retail Sales m/m

0.30%

0.10%

EUR

 French 10-y Bond Auction

EUR

 Spanish 10-y Bond Auction

4.50|2.0

USD

 Unemployment Claims

315K

305K

USD

 ISM Non-Manufacturing PMI

57.2

58.6

USD

 Factory Orders m/m

0.20%

-2.40%

USD

 FOMC Member Powell Speaks

FriOct 4

JPY

 Monetary Policy Statement

EUR

 German PPI m/m

0.10%

-0.10%

JPY

 BOJ Press Conference

USD

 Non-Farm Employment Change

179K

169K

USD

 Unemployment Rate

7.30%

7.30%

USD

 Average Hourly Earnings m/m

0.20%

0.20%

USD

 FOMC Member Dudley Speaks

USD

 FOMC Member Stein Speaks

CAD

 Ivey PMI

52.6

51

The calendar for next week will be full of important economic releases. On Monday Canada will publish its GDP. Tuesday Australia will have its Cash Rate and the monetary policy, from the Euro Area there will be published the Manufacturing PMIs for Italy and Spain and the unemployment rate. Wednesday (this time) the ECB will have its monetary policy and the press conference, and US will report the ADP. Thursday Great Britain will release its retail sales and US will publish its unemployment claims. On Friday BOJ will have its monetary policy and US will release the Non-Farm Employment Change.

All these data will be accompanied by the debt ceiling discussions. We are expecting a week with high volatility on the Forex market. We recommend traders to adjust their strategy for the new conditions and keep an eye on the market news.

Filed Under: Forex Analysis Tagged With: , , , , ,

What to Expect for the first week of September on the Forex Market?

By Razvan Mihai

The last week of august should have past smoothly, because there were no expected very important events. Still the conflict in Syria has raised the volatility of the markets. Overall the stock market has fallen, the price of oil rallied and touched a new high for the past six months and on the Forex Market safe heavens appreciated the most. On Thursday the spirits calmed down regarding Syria, but the release of the US GDP above expectations (2.5% vs. 2.2% exp.) has triggered another rally for the US dollar.

The first week of September it is expected to bring high volatility especially on the FX market because of the economic releases.

Date Currency Forecast Previous
SunSep 1 CNY Manufacturing PMI 50.6 50.3
MonSep 2 NZD Overseas Trade Index q/q 3.90% 4.10%
AUD AIG Manufacturing Index 42
JPY Capital Spending q/y -2.00% -3.90%
AUD MI Inflation Gauge m/m 0.50%
AUD Building Approvals m/m 4.10% -6.90%
AUD Company Operating Profits q/q 1.10% 3.00%
CNY HSBC Final Manufacturing PMI 50.2 50.1
AUD Commodity Prices y/y -11.80%
EUR Spanish Manufacturing PMI 50.1 49.8
CHF SVME PMI 55.9 57.4
EUR Italian Manufacturing PMI 50.7 50.4
EUR Final Manufacturing PMI 51.3 51.3
GBP Manufacturing PMI 55.2 54.6
CAD Bank Holiday
USD Bank Holiday
TueSep 3 GBP BRC Retail Sales Monitor y/y 2.20%
JPY Monetary Base y/y 41.30% 38.00%
CNY Non-Manufacturing PMI 54.1
NZD ANZ Commodity Prices m/m 0.60%
AUD Retail Sales m/m 0.40% 0.00%
AUD Current Account -8.3B -8.5B
JPY Average Cash Earnings y/y 0.80% 0.60%
JPY 10-y Bond Auction 0.80|3.5
AUD Cash Rate 2.50% 2.50%
AUD RBA Rate Statement
CHF GDP q/q 0.30% 0.60%
EUR Spanish Unemployment Change -5.2K -64.9K
GBP Construction PMI 58.4 57
EUR PPI m/m 0.20% 0.00%
USD Final Manufacturing PMI 53.9 53.9
USD ISM Manufacturing PMI 54.2 55.4
USD Construction Spending m/m 0.30% -0.60%
USD IBD/TIPP Economic Optimism 46.2 45.1
USD ISM Manufacturing Prices 51.6 49
WedSep 4 GBP BRC Shop Price Index y/y -0.50%
AUD AIG Services Index 39.4
AUD GDP q/q 0.60% 0.60%
GBP Halifax HPI m/m 0.90%
EUR Spanish Services PMI 49.3 48.5
EUR Italian Services PMI 49.2 48.7
EUR Final Services PMI 51 51
GBP Services PMI 59.8 60.2
EUR Retail Sales m/m 0.50% -0.50%
EUR Revised GDP q/q 0.30% 0.30%
USD Challenger Job Cuts y/y 2.30%
CAD Trade Balance -0.4B -0.5B
USD Trade Balance -38.6B -34.2B
CAD BOC Rate Statement
CAD Overnight Rate 1.00% 1.00%
USD Total Vehicle Sales 15.8B 15.7M
USD Beige Book
ThuSep 5 AUD Trade Balance 0.11B 0.60B
JPY Monetary Policy Statement
JPY BOJ Press Conference
EUR French 10-y Bond Auction 2.32|1.7
EUR Spanish 10-y Bond Auction 4.72|2.3
EUR German Factory Orders m/m -0.70% 3.60%
GBP Asset Purchase Facility 375B 375B
GBP Official Bank Rate 0.50% 0.50%
GBP MPC Rate Statement
EUR Minimum Bid Rate 0.50% 0.50%
USD ADP Non-Farm Employment Change 181K 200K
EUR ECB Press Conference
USD Unemployment Claims 330K 331K
USD Revised Nonfarm Productivity q/q 1.50% 0.90%
USD Revised Unit Labor Costs q/q 1.00% 1.40%
USD ISM Non-Manufacturing PMI 55.2 56
USD Factory Orders m/m -3.20% 1.50%
USD Natural Gas Storage 67B
USD Crude Oil Inventories 3.0M
ALL G20 Meetings
FriSep 6 AUD AIG Construction Index 44.1
JPY BOJ Monthly Report
JPY Leading Indicators 107.90% 107.20%
EUR German Trade Balance 15.9B 15.7B
EUR French Gov Budget Balance -59.3B
EUR French Trade Balance -4.5B -4.4B
CHF Foreign Currency Reserves 434.9B
CHF CPI m/m 0.00% -0.40%
GBP Manufacturing Production m/m 0.40% 1.90%
GBP Consumer Inflation Expectations 3.60%
GBP Trade Balance -8.2B -8.1B
GBP Industrial Production m/m 0.20% 1.10%
EUR German Industrial Production m/m -0.30% 2.40%
USD FOMC Member Evans Speaks
CAD Employment Change 30.2K -39.4K
CAD Unemployment Rate 7.20% 7.20%
CAD Labor Productivity q/q 0.30% 0.20%
USD Non-Farm Employment Change 181K 162K
USD Unemployment Rate 7.40% 7.40%
USD Average Hourly Earnings m/m 0.20% -0.10%
CAD Ivey PMI 55.1 48.4
GBP NIESR GDP Estimate 0.70%
ALL G20 Meetings
USD FOMC Member George Speaks
SatSep 7 AUD Parliamentary Elections

 

As you can see in the calendar, there will be a lot of events happening next week, from economic releases to monetary policy meetings and press conference. By far the most awaited will be the ECB monetary policy statement and afterwards the press conference, on Thursday, and Friday the data from the US labor market.

Filed Under: Finance News Tagged With: , , , ,

EURUSD Daily Technical Perspective after GDP Release

By Razvan Mihai

Last week the Euro has reached a top at 1.3450, but it did not remain to long there because the US dollar started to recover. This week started with a consolidation around 1.3400. When the problems in Syria started and the US rushed with their affirmations to blame the Assad government the risk aversion was established among investors.

If a war is to be occurred the safe heavens would start to appreciate and also the price of oil to rally. This time it took only some press declaration for the safe heavens to start appreciation. The Japanese yen reached monthly highs and also the US dollar started to gain in front of his counterparts. Today the conflict in Syria came second after the release of the United States GDP. It was expected an economic growth of 2.2%, but the official number was actually a 2.5% rise.

eurusd-dropped-at-1.32-after-gdp-29.08.2013

Chart: EURUSD, Daily

The publication of the GDP triggered new buys for the US dollar so the EURUSD drop under 1.3250 support and reached 1.3200. Here, Euro has found some buyers, but the drop might not be finished yet. We are expecting a short drop under 1.3180 before another correction, as you can see on the chart. There is a possibility for the buyers to hold on at 1.32, if this would be the case, then we could expect a rally back to 1.3400.

Filed Under: Forex Analysis Tagged With: , , , ,

Which is the position of St. Louis Fed’s Bullard?

By Silvia Gabor

Everybody is speaking about the tapering of the Quantitative Easing program, but nobody has any concrete and reliable piece of information. If we are to consider the macroeconomic indicators that describe the U.S.’s economy, it is difficult to take any position. The data is mixed. On one hand, the labour market seems to be giving real signs of improvement, on the other hand, we cannot trust only one set of data. An information that can be trusted is the FOMC Member Bullard’s speech. It looks like between the FOMC members, the only measure which was discussed so far, about the tapering of the QE3, is the starting of discussions about possible plans for reducing the pace of asset purchases. Another thing that we know for sure, is that no final decision will be taken unless the end of the year will meet the same positive results that were met at the end of the first half of 2013. In the best case scenario, the September’s meeting might bring a set of pans, which will be implemented next year, according to the economic conditions.

The main findings of the Bullard’s speech are the following:

- Any decision concerning the Quantitative Easing program is separated from any decision concerning the policy rate;

- There are discussions on whether or not a wider range of labour market indicators need to be taken into consideration, decreasing the importance given to the present key indicators ( the unemployment rate and payroll employment growth);

- FOMC will have to decide if, in taking any tapering decision, it is important to consider the weak evolution of the GDP (starting with the beginning of 2013) or is better having sight of the future evolution, which is expected to be improved, and to trust this presumption?

- The size of the Fed’s balance sheet might pose questions about the most appropriate moment of tapering;

- The inflation is low. In such an environment, the FOMC might remove the policy accommodation;

Filed Under: Finance News Tagged With: , , , , ,

What is to be Expected Next Week for the Forex Market?

By Razvan Mihai

If you are scalper, intraday or guerilla trader, in general short and very short term trader you should pay attention to the economic releases for every day. Keeping an eye over the economic calendar will help prepare your trades or just announce you to stay out of the market.

On Monday Japan will publish its Prelim GDP, estimated to rise 0.9%, and its industrial production. Switzerland will release its retail sales and for the USA the Federal Budget Balance is expected to fall 95.3B.

Tuesday will be more crowded. Japan will publish Core Machinery Orders and the Monetary Policy Meeting Minutes. From the Euro Area we will know the German Final CPI, German ZEW Economic Sentiment (expected to rise at 40.3), the Industrial Production and the ZEW Economic Sentiment. USA will report its Core Retail Sales and Retail Sales, Import Prices and Business Inventories.

Wednesday will start with New Zealand’s Retail Sales and Core Retail Sales and it will continue with Australia’s Westpac Consumer Sentiment. From the Euro Area there will be French and German Prelim GDP, Flash GDP for the Euro Zone. Switzerland will release its PPI and Zew Economic Sentiment, while Great Britain will post the Claimant Count Change, MPC Asset Purchases Facility, MPC Official Rate Bank Votes and Unemployment Rate (which is expected to remain unchanged at 7.8%). USA will publish the monthly PPI, Core PPI and Crude Oil Inventories.

Thursday will bring Retail Sales for Great Britain and for the United States Core CPI and CPI, Unemployment Claims, TIC Long-Term Purchases, Industrial Production, Philly Fed Manufacturing Index and NAHB Housing Market Index.

On Friday the investors will know what is the Current Account, CPI/Core CPI and Trade Balance for the Euro Area. Canada will release its Manufacturing Sales and Foreign Securities Purchases. United States will publish Housing Starts and Prelim UoM Consumer Sentiment.

As you can see, next week is quite full. If you would like to not get caught on the wrong foot you should keep an eye for this publications.

Filed Under: Finance News Tagged With: , , ,