What to Expect for the first week of September on the Forex Market?

The last week of august should have past smoothly, because there were no expected very important events. Still the conflict in Syria has raised the volatility of the markets. Overall the stock market has fallen, the price of oil rallied and touched a new high for the past six months and on the Forex Market safe heavens appreciated the most. On Thursday the spirits calmed down regarding Syria, but the release of the US GDP above expectations (2.5% vs. 2.2% exp.) has triggered another rally for the US dollar.

The first week of September it is expected to bring high volatility especially on the FX market because of the economic releases.

Date Currency Forecast Previous
SunSep 1 CNY Manufacturing PMI 50.6 50.3
MonSep 2 NZD Overseas Trade Index q/q 3.90% 4.10%
AUD AIG Manufacturing Index 42
JPY Capital Spending q/y -2.00% -3.90%
AUD MI Inflation Gauge m/m 0.50%
AUD Building Approvals m/m 4.10% -6.90%
AUD Company Operating Profits q/q 1.10% 3.00%
CNY HSBC Final Manufacturing PMI 50.2 50.1
AUD Commodity Prices y/y -11.80%
EUR Spanish Manufacturing PMI 50.1 49.8
CHF SVME PMI 55.9 57.4
EUR Italian Manufacturing PMI 50.7 50.4
EUR Final Manufacturing PMI 51.3 51.3
GBP Manufacturing PMI 55.2 54.6
CAD Bank Holiday
USD Bank Holiday
TueSep 3 GBP BRC Retail Sales Monitor y/y 2.20%
JPY Monetary Base y/y 41.30% 38.00%
CNY Non-Manufacturing PMI 54.1
NZD ANZ Commodity Prices m/m 0.60%
AUD Retail Sales m/m 0.40% 0.00%
AUD Current Account -8.3B -8.5B
JPY Average Cash Earnings y/y 0.80% 0.60%
JPY 10-y Bond Auction 0.80|3.5
AUD Cash Rate 2.50% 2.50%
AUD RBA Rate Statement
CHF GDP q/q 0.30% 0.60%
EUR Spanish Unemployment Change -5.2K -64.9K
GBP Construction PMI 58.4 57
EUR PPI m/m 0.20% 0.00%
USD Final Manufacturing PMI 53.9 53.9
USD ISM Manufacturing PMI 54.2 55.4
USD Construction Spending m/m 0.30% -0.60%
USD IBD/TIPP Economic Optimism 46.2 45.1
USD ISM Manufacturing Prices 51.6 49
WedSep 4 GBP BRC Shop Price Index y/y -0.50%
AUD AIG Services Index 39.4
AUD GDP q/q 0.60% 0.60%
GBP Halifax HPI m/m 0.90%
EUR Spanish Services PMI 49.3 48.5
EUR Italian Services PMI 49.2 48.7
EUR Final Services PMI 51 51
GBP Services PMI 59.8 60.2
EUR Retail Sales m/m 0.50% -0.50%
EUR Revised GDP q/q 0.30% 0.30%
USD Challenger Job Cuts y/y 2.30%
CAD Trade Balance -0.4B -0.5B
USD Trade Balance -38.6B -34.2B
CAD BOC Rate Statement
CAD Overnight Rate 1.00% 1.00%
USD Total Vehicle Sales 15.8B 15.7M
USD Beige Book
ThuSep 5 AUD Trade Balance 0.11B 0.60B
JPY Monetary Policy Statement
JPY BOJ Press Conference
EUR French 10-y Bond Auction 2.32|1.7
EUR Spanish 10-y Bond Auction 4.72|2.3
EUR German Factory Orders m/m -0.70% 3.60%
GBP Asset Purchase Facility 375B 375B
GBP Official Bank Rate 0.50% 0.50%
GBP MPC Rate Statement
EUR Minimum Bid Rate 0.50% 0.50%
USD ADP Non-Farm Employment Change 181K 200K
EUR ECB Press Conference
USD Unemployment Claims 330K 331K
USD Revised Nonfarm Productivity q/q 1.50% 0.90%
USD Revised Unit Labor Costs q/q 1.00% 1.40%
USD ISM Non-Manufacturing PMI 55.2 56
USD Factory Orders m/m -3.20% 1.50%
USD Natural Gas Storage 67B
USD Crude Oil Inventories 3.0M
ALL G20 Meetings
FriSep 6 AUD AIG Construction Index 44.1
JPY BOJ Monthly Report
JPY Leading Indicators 107.90% 107.20%
EUR German Trade Balance 15.9B 15.7B
EUR French Gov Budget Balance -59.3B
EUR French Trade Balance -4.5B -4.4B
CHF Foreign Currency Reserves 434.9B
CHF CPI m/m 0.00% -0.40%
GBP Manufacturing Production m/m 0.40% 1.90%
GBP Consumer Inflation Expectations 3.60%
GBP Trade Balance -8.2B -8.1B
GBP Industrial Production m/m 0.20% 1.10%
EUR German Industrial Production m/m -0.30% 2.40%
USD FOMC Member Evans Speaks
CAD Employment Change 30.2K -39.4K
CAD Unemployment Rate 7.20% 7.20%
CAD Labor Productivity q/q 0.30% 0.20%
USD Non-Farm Employment Change 181K 162K
USD Unemployment Rate 7.40% 7.40%
USD Average Hourly Earnings m/m 0.20% -0.10%
CAD Ivey PMI 55.1 48.4
GBP NIESR GDP Estimate 0.70%
ALL G20 Meetings
USD FOMC Member George Speaks
SatSep 7 AUD Parliamentary Elections


As you can see in the calendar, there will be a lot of events happening next week, from economic releases to monetary policy meetings and press conference. By far the most awaited will be the ECB monetary policy statement and afterwards the press conference, on Thursday, and Friday the data from the US labor market.

What to Expect for the Forex Market This Week?

Monday was a pretty chill day for trading. There were not that many economic indicators published and the FX major currencies maintained their trend.

EURUSD remained stable around 1.3340 after a rally fueled by the Bundesbank announcement that they see a recovery for the European Union economy. USDJPY tried several times to remain above 98.00, but it seems that investors are still buying the Japanese yen. The current support sits at 97.00 and a daily close under this level might trigger further appreciation for the Japanese currency. AUDUSD has been in a rectangle for the past week. Its support is around 0.9080 while the resistance is situated at 0.9215. A break outside this box could signal the next move for the aussie. Cable broke 1.56 with the US dollar and seems to be in a steady uptrend. It would be advised to keep an eye over the economic calendar to anticipate the short term corrective waves.

The economic calendar will start to get crowded for the rest of the week.  Next on the list to be published are the following:

-          Monetary Policy Meeting Minutes and CB Leading index for Australia;

-          Speech from governor Wheeler of RBNZ, Inflation Expectations, Visitor Arrivals and Credit Card Spending for New Zeeland;

-          CB Leading Index, Foreign direct investments and HSBC Flash Manufacturing PMI for China;

-          Wholesale Sales, Retail Sales and Core Retail Sales and CPI with core CPI for Canada;

-          CBI Industrial Order Executions, Second estimates GDP, BBA Mortgage Approvals and Prelim Business Investments for Great Britain;

-          German PPI, German Flash Manufacturing and Services PMI, German final GDP and Consumer Confidence for the Euro Area;

-          Existing Home Sales, Crude Oil Inventories, FOMC Meeting Minutes, Unemployment Claims, Flash Manufacturing PMI, Jackson Hole and New Home Sales for the USA;