Euro currency has ridden a rising wave which pushed it back to 2011 highs. The first half of last week was calm, but the second half brought some interesting market moves. The ECB press conference has triggered the rally for the single currency. Beside the fact that the ECB maintained the interest rate unchanged, Draghi kept its optimist tone at the press conference.
After EURUSD reached a multiannual high it was helped to retreat back under 1.3900 on Friday when the NFP was published above analyst’s expectations. The 175K published for the Non-Farm Employment Change and the 6.7% unemployment rate pushed the dollar a bit higher, but the EURUSD did not fall lower than 1.3850.
Keep on reading our article to see what to expect for this week and also what our technical view are for the short and medium term for the EURUSD price action.
German Trade Balance – (07:00 GMT). The difference in value between imported and exported goods during the reported month it is expected to be around 19.3 billion. In February the actual was higher than the analysts forecasted and higher than the January value.
JOLTS Job Openings – (14:00 GMT). Less known but with a high impact on the market, JOLTS job openings is actually the number of job openings during the reported month, excluding the farming industry. For March it is expected to rise to 4.02M after in February it was published around its expectations of 4.04M.
Industrial Production – (10:00 GMT). After a big disappointment in February, analysts are expecting a recovery of 0.6% for the European industrial production.
Federal Budget Balance – (18:00 GMT). The Federal budget for the United States is expected to drop at -223.2B, after last month was reported a drop of -10.4B.
ECB Monthly Bulleting – (09:00 GMT). t reveals the statistical data that the ECB Governing Board evaluated when making the latest interest rate decision, and provides detailed analysis of current and future economic conditions from the bank’s viewpoint.
Core Retail Sales – (12:30 GMT). On Thursday it will be published for the United States. It is expected to rise by 0.2% after it stagnated in February.
Retail Sales – (12:30 GMT). The retail sales, which also include automobiles, are expected to rise by only 0.3%, after they dropped last month by 0.4%.
Unemployment Claims – (12:30 GMT). The weekly updated indicator from the labor market of the US is expected to rise to 334K on Thursday.
Import Prices m/m – (12:30 GMT). The change in the price of imported goods and services purchased domestically is expected to have risen by 0.6% for last month, after the 0.1% rise in February and stagnation for January.
PPI m/m – (12:30 GMT). The Producer price index for the United States is expected to rise by the same value as in February. The 0.2% rise would sustain the price stability on positive grounds.
Prelim UoM Consumer Sentiment – (13:55). One of the most important leading indicators for the US economy is to be released this Friday. After it surprised the market with an 81.2 reading last month, it is expected to rise even more in March, at 81.9.
As you can see the current week is not that full in what concerns the economic releases, but their impact can be high in this unstable market.
Support: 1.3800, 1.3700, 1.3600;
Resistance: 1.3900, 1.4000;
As we can see on the chart the Euro managed to break over 1.3900, but didn’t remain there for a long time. Bears pushed the price back and it drew a Shooting Star on a round level. This is usually a negative signal for bulls. If the price will fall beneath 1.3850, we might see a bigger drop taking place that will retest 1.3800, or why not even lower. A daily close above 1.3915 would confirm bulls’ pressure and we could think about a rally all the way to 1.4000.
Support: 1.3822, 1.3800, 1.3765;
Resistance: 1.3914, 1.3965;
On the 60 minutes chart a symmetrical triangle was formed during the last trading hours. A breakout above the triangle’s line could mean that the Euro is ready to rally again and target 1.3965. On the other hand a drop below the lower line of the triangle might signal a deeper drop which could target 1.3800.
Bullish Or Bearish
On medium term I am still bullish on the Euro currency. It seems that it got the support from the ECB and investors might push it higher. A good target for the end of this week would be 1.4000, reached. I will keep my eyes on the 60 minutes chart to get my intraday position ready though.