Chart: USDJPY, H4
From the top of this year, hit in May, the US dollar lost about 9.5%. It managed to recover about 78% of this fall after Federal Reserve announced that it will start tapering the QE program this year and stop it in 2014.
Yen is becoming a week currency because of the monetary easing started by BoJ. The program already shows an improvement in Japan’s economy so the Central Bank will maintain it a current values until the end of the year. They are targeting deflation and the devaluation of the currency, in their opinion, is just the effect.
During the past 7 days USDJPY has consolidated in a symmetrical triangle right under the 78.6 retrace of the latest impulse of the main uptrend. This means that investors are not yet convinced in which currency to invest. While they are waiting for further signals from the Central Banks, we can look for technical signals to understand in which they will invest next.
If the price will break the upper line and close on a 240 minutes time frame above it could trigger a new rally for the US dollar and target the 102.00 price. On the other hand, if the price will close under the lower line we might witness a drop to 96.70 (the 61.8 Fibonacci retrace of the uptrend).