It looks like the growth impulse was given by the QE3 program and now it’s time to back up and wait for the effects to show. Ben Bernanke announced again the shrinking of the QE3, and based on a Bloomberg survey, the first reduction consists of $20 million somewhere in October. By the time this program will be ended, the improvements will be visible: 2% rate of inflation and less that 7% unemployment rate, in the view of officials. Next year there are important chances to see someone else governing Fed, factor that for sure will influence the QE program. Voices are saying that a member of the Board is ready to take charge of the Fed, and this person is very close to the current Governor and its way of thinking. Anyway, the negative scenarios was discussed as well, and a possible extension is being considered if the economy needs it. With other words, the American style of saying “we will do whatever it takes”.
Meanwhile, the increase in the unemployment rate reported yesterday, showing an increased number of unemployment claims filled may indicate the confidence of more and more people that they should get back to searching a job because there are chances to find one. Likewise, we should be careful to the possible impulses that the wealthier American economy may transmit to other important economies which are waiting for encouragement.