On 29th of June the price action of AUDUSD has made a new high but, was also the day that started the 10 month range. The first two throwbacks have determined the support zone between 1.01 and 1.0170, while the first high established an important resistance at 1.06. The resistance line is also a round number and became a psychological number.
The next down moves from September and October 2012 have established the main support at 1.0160. This level was broke in the first days of March 2013, but the price couldn’t close under it, and Hammer created announced another pullback to the resistance line.
At this point the price is heading back to the lower part of the range. Another rejection might keep the price inside these limits close to one year. But considering the situation of Australia’s economy we might see a lower aussie during the next months. They need a weak currency to help their exports. Looking at the pas economic indicators we will see that they were quite low, this might bring, inevitably, a cut in the interest rate. This might be the trigger for another break under the support, but this time confirmed.