Bitcoin (BTCUSD) Consolidated in a Symmetrical Triangle

We haven’t touched the Bitcoin subject for a while now, this instrument that became of interest for speculators after the incident with Cyprus seems to react something like a safe heaven.

When the markets are undecided or the risk aversion takes its place in trading the Bitcoin is bought.


Chart: BTCUSD, H4

From the beginning of July the price for Bitcoin in dollars has moved in a pretty clear up trend. In September the line of the trend was breached and a channel has formed. The price started to consolidate, inside the up channel, in a Symmetrical Triangle with a middle price of 1374 per a Bitcoin.

If the price will fall and close on a 4 hours chart under the lower line of the triangle we can expect for the drop to continue to 130.00, where it will find the trend line, or even lower to 120.00 where it will find the 7th September low (the full target for the downside sits around 110.45$/Bitcoin).

On the other hand a breach above the upper line of the pattern could mean that speculators are willing to buy this digital currency, so the price might break above the 148.64 resistance and rally to 162.20, where it will find the trend line.

The volatility for this currency pair could rise tomorrow during the FOMC meeting and press conference.

Syria, an Oil Bomb Ready to Explode

Syria is the main subject at the current moment. United States are holding the Syrian government accountable for killing their own citizens with chemical weapons last week. Not only the United States, but also UK and France are blaming Assad for the killings in Ghouta and all of them are willing to intervene.

It didn’t take long for protestants to appear. The protests in Libya had a negative impact on the oil production. A shortage in the oil offer brought higher prices for both WTI and Brent oils. But this is just the beginning. Syria itself produces around 164000 barrels a day, so it is not that important for the oil market. But if United States will intervene, here, to get rid of the Bashar al-Assad, the conflict will be ramified and the entire Middle East will be engulfed in a war.

While USA has allies like U.K. and France, the Syrians have their own allies. Iran is a longtime Syrian ally and they warned the US that they will back them up, and they are not alone because Russia is also backing up the Syrians. If only of these two allies would enter a war the price of oil would rally at a fast pace and could touch new highs.


Chart: Brent Oil, WTI Oil (Daily)

For the moment Brent Oil, lower part of the chart, has broken today the rejection line of an up channel and rallied almost 3 percent today, touching the highest level in the past 6 months at 114.42$ per barrel. If today the closing price will be around this level and the United States, U.K. and France would still want to intervene in Syria, we might see the Brent oil going towards 119$ per barrel, since there are no other visible resistance until there.

The WTI has broken the upper line of a symmetrical triangle, which was drawn during the last month. A close of the day above the upper line of the triangle as well as a continuation of this conflict could easily push its price towards the target of the triangle at 113.40$ per barrel.

The probability for the US to intervene in Syrian and to try to get rid of Assad is big. It matters now when and how they will do this.