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What to Expect from the Forex Market Next Week 16 – 20 September

By Razvan Mihai

Another week has past and some very interesting readings were published. Wednesday Great Britain has published some very good data from the labor market. Its Claimant Count Change has fallen 32.6K and the Unemployment Rate dropped unexpectedly at 7.7%. The next day Australia reported a rise in its Unemployment Rate of 0.1% and RBNZ’s governor said that it expected a rise in the inflation rate in 2014 and they might have to raise the interest rate. Thursday it was also published the Unemployment Claims for USA at a value of 292K, but it might have been a problem with their computerized systems and this number could be revised next week.

The economic calendar for next week looks like this:

Date Currency Forecast Previous
MonSep 16 NZD Westpac Consumer Sentiment 116.6
GBP Rightmove HPI m/m -1.80%
JPY Bank Holiday
EUR Italian Trade Balance 4.13B 3.62B
EUR CPI y/y 1.30% 1.30%
EUR Core CPI y/y 1.10% 1.10%
CAD Foreign Securities Purchases -2.23B -15.41B
USD Empire State Manufacturing Index 9.2 8.2
USD Capacity Utilization Rate 77.80% 77.60%
USD Industrial Production m/m 0.50% 0.00%
TueSep 17 GBP BOE Quarterly Bulletin
AUD Monetary Policy Meeting Minutes
AUD New Motor Vehicle Sales m/m -3.50%
CNY CB Leading Index m/m 1.40%
CNY Foreign Direct Investment ytd/y 7.10%
NZD REINZ HPI m/m -0.50%
EUR Current Account 18.3B 16.9B
GBP CPI y/y 2.70% 2.80%
GBP PPI Input m/m 0.30% 1.10%
GBP RPI y/y 3.20% 3.10%
GBP Core CPI y/y 2.10% 2.00%
GBP HPI y/y 3.40% 3.10%
GBP PPI Output m/m 0.20% 0.20%
EUR German ZEW Economic Sentiment 45.3 42
EUR ZEW Economic Sentiment 47.2 44
EUR Trade Balance 15.3B 14.9B
USD Treasury Sec Lew Speaks
CAD Manufacturing Sales m/m 0.60% -0.50%
USD Core CPI m/m 0.10% 0.20%
USD CPI m/m 0.20% 0.20%
USD TIC Long-Term Purchases -45.3B -66.9B
USD NAHB Housing Market Index 59 59
WedSep 18 NZD Current Account -1.87B -0.66B
AUD CB Leading Index m/m -0.20%
AUD MI Leading Index m/m 0.00%
AUD RBA Assist Gov Edey Speaks
GBP MPC Asset Purchase Facility Votes 0-0-9 0-0-9
GBP MPC Official Bank Rate Votes 0-0-9 0-0-9
CHF ZEW Economic Expectations 7.2
USD Building Permits 0.95M 0.95M
USD Housing Starts 0.93M 0.90M
USD Crude Oil Inventories -0.2M
CAD BOC Gov Poloz Speaks
USD FOMC Economic Projections
USD FOMC Statement
USD Federal Funds Rate <0.25% <0.25%
USD FOMC Press Conference
ThuSep 19 NZD GDP q/q 0.20% 0.30%
JPY Trade Balance -0.81T -0.94T
CNY Bank Holiday
AUD RBA Bulletin
JPY BOJ Gov Kuroda Speaks
JPY All Industries Activity m/m 0.30% -0.60%
CHF SECO Economic Forecasts
CHF Trade Balance 2.74B 2.49B
CHF Libor Rate <0.25% <0.25%
CHF SNB Monetary Policy Assessment
GBP Retail Sales m/m 0.50% 1.10%
GBP CBI Industrial Order Expectations 2 0
CAD Wholesale Sales m/m 1.60% -2.80%
USD Unemployment Claims 323K 292K
USD Current Account -96B -106B
USD Existing Home Sales 5.27M 5.39M
USD Philly Fed Manufacturing Index 10.5 9.3
USD CB Leading Index m/m 0.60% 0.60%
USD Natural Gas Storage 65B
FriSep 20 NZD Visitor Arrivals m/m 1.30%
CNY Bank Holiday
NZD Credit Card Spending y/y 4.70%
JPY BOJ Gov Kuroda Speaks
GBP Public Sector Net Borrowing 11.9B -1.6B
CAD Core CPI m/m 0.10% 0.00%
CAD CPI m/m 0.10% 0.10%
EUR Consumer Confidence -14 -16
USD FOMC Member George Speaks
USD FOMC Member Tarullo Speaks
USD FOMC Member Bullard Speaks

As you can see in the table, Tuesday there will be posted the CPI for Great Britain, the German ZEW Economic Sentiment and the Core CPI for the United States. Wednesday the event of the day and maybe the most important of the week is the FOMC Press Conference. The markets are waiting for details regarding the Quantitative Easing program. Thursday Great Britain will publish its Retail Sales and from USA there will be the Unemployment Claims, Existing Home Sales and Philly Fed Manufacturing index. On Friday Kuroda will have a speech and Canada will report its CPI.

Filed Under: Finance News Tagged With: , , ,

What to Expect from the Forex Market Next Week 8 - 13 September

By Razvan Mihai

The week that just has passed, brought some high volatility on the Forex market, especially in the second part. The ISM Manufacturing and Non-Manufacturing PMIs from the United States surprised with above expectations readings. Draghi has left the door open for a new cut of the interest rate and the Non-Farm Payrolls have disappointed with a lower number than expected.

Date Currency Forecast Previous
MonSep 9 NZD Manufacturing Sales q/q 0.20%
JPY Current Account 0.32T 0.65T
JPY Final GDP q/q 1.00% 0.60%
JPY Bank Lending y/y 2.00%
JPY Final GDP Price Index y/y -0.30% -0.30%
AUD ANZ Job Advertisements m/m -1.10%
AUD Home Loans m/m 2.20% 2.70%
CNY CPI y/y 2.60% 2.70%
CNY PPI y/y -1.70% -2.30%
CNY Trade Balance 20.3B 17.8B
CNY New Loans 731B 700B
CNY M2 Money Supply y/y 14.60% 14.50%
JPY Consumer Confidence 44.3 43.6
CHF Unemployment Rate 3.20% 3.20%
JPY Economy Watchers Sentiment 53.8 52.3
CHF Retail Sales y/y 3.20% 2.30%
EUR Sentix Investor Confidence -4 -4.9
CAD Building Permits m/m 4.40% -10.30%
USD Consumer Credit m/m 12.7B 13.8B
TueSep 10 GBP RICS House Price Balance 38% 36%
JPY Monetary Policy Meeting Minutes
JPY Tertiary Industry Activity m/m -0.40% -0.30%
JPY M2 Money Stock y/y 3.80% 3.70%
AUD MI Inflation Expectations 2.30%
AUD NAB Business Confidence -3
JPY 30-y Bond Auction 1.79|4.1
CNY Fixed Asset Investment ytd/y 20.20% 20.10%
CNY Industrial Production y/y 9.90% 9.70%
CNY Retail Sales y/y 13.30% 13.20%
JPY Prelim Machine Tool Orders y/y -12.10%
EUR French Industrial Production m/m 0.70% -1.40%
GBP BOE Credit Conditions Survey
USD NFIB Small Business Index 94.8 94.1
CAD Housing Starts 190K 193K
USD JOLTS Job Openings 3.96M 3.94M
WedSep 11 JPY BSI Manufacturing Index 7.2 5
JPY CGPI y/y 2.30% 2.20%
AUD Westpac Consumer Sentiment 3.50%
EUR French Final Non-Farm Payrolls q/q -0.20% -0.20%
EUR German Final CPI m/m 0.00% 0.00%
GBP Claimant Count Change -21.2K -29.2K
GBP Average Earnings Index 3m/y 1.30% 2.10%
GBP Unemployment Rate 7.80% 7.80%
EUR German 10-y Bond Auction 1.80|1.3
GBP CB Leading Index m/m -0.20%
USD Wholesale Inventories m/m 0.30% -0.20%
USD Crude Oil Inventories -1.8M
GBP MPC Member Miles Speaks
USD 10-y Bond Auction 2.62|2.5
ThuSep 12 NZD Official Cash Rate 2.50% 2.50%
NZD RBNZ Press Conference
NZD RBNZ Rate Statement
NZD RBNZ Monetary Policy Statement
JPY Core Machinery Orders m/m 2.50% -2.70%
AUD Employment Change 10.2K -10.2K
AUD Unemployment Rate 5.80% 5.70%
NZD REINZ HPI m/m -0.50%
EUR German WPI m/m 0.20% -0.30%
EUR French CPI m/m 0.50% -0.30%
EUR ECB Monthly Bulletin
EUR Italian Industrial Production m/m 0.30% 0.30%
EUR Industrial Production m/m -0.10% 0.70%
GBP Inflation Report Hearings
EUR Italian 10-y Bond Auction
GBP 10-y Bond Auction 2.58|1.8
CAD NHPI m/m 0.20% 0.20%
USD Unemployment Claims 332K 323K
USD Import Prices m/m 0.60% 0.20%
USD Natural Gas Storage 58B
USD 30-y Bond Auction 3.65|2.1
USD Federal Budget Balance -155.3B -97.6B
FriSep 13 NZD Business NZ Manufacturing Index 59.5
NZD FPI m/m 0.50%
JPY Revised Industrial Production m/m 3.20% 3.20%
CHF PPI m/m 0.20% 0.00%
EUR Employment Change q/q -0.20% -0.50%
EUR Trade Balance 15.3B 14.9B
EUR ECOFIN Meetings
EUR Eurogroup Meetings
CAD Capacity Utilization Rate 81.30% 81.10%
USD Core Retail Sales m/m 0.30% 0.50%
USD PPI m/m 0.20% 0.00%
USD Retail Sales m/m 0.50% 0.20%
USD Core PPI m/m 0.20% 0.10%
USD Prelim UoM Consumer Sentiment 82.6 82.1
USD Prelim UoM Inflation Expectations 3.00%
USD Business Inventories m/m 0.40% 0.00%

As you can see, on Monday the most important events will be the Chinese CPI and Trade Balance, as well as the Canadian Building Permits. On Tuesday China will report its Industrial Production which could trigger volatility on the currency pairs which includes the Australian Dollar. Wednesday Great Britain will publish the Claimant Count Change and the Unemployment Rate. On 12th of September New Zealand will release its Official Cash Rate and the RBNZ will have a press conference, Australia will release the Unemployment Rate and the Employment Change and the USA will release the Unemployment Claims for the week. The last day of the week will bring on the table the Core Retail Sales, PPI and the Prelim UoM Consumer Sentiment for the United States.

Filed Under: Finance News Tagged With: , , ,

What to Expect for the Forex Market This Week?

By Razvan Mihai

Monday was a pretty chill day for trading. There were not that many economic indicators published and the FX major currencies maintained their trend.

EURUSD remained stable around 1.3340 after a rally fueled by the Bundesbank announcement that they see a recovery for the European Union economy. USDJPY tried several times to remain above 98.00, but it seems that investors are still buying the Japanese yen. The current support sits at 97.00 and a daily close under this level might trigger further appreciation for the Japanese currency. AUDUSD has been in a rectangle for the past week. Its support is around 0.9080 while the resistance is situated at 0.9215. A break outside this box could signal the next move for the aussie. Cable broke 1.56 with the US dollar and seems to be in a steady uptrend. It would be advised to keep an eye over the economic calendar to anticipate the short term corrective waves.

The economic calendar will start to get crowded for the rest of the week.  Next on the list to be published are the following:

-          Monetary Policy Meeting Minutes and CB Leading index for Australia;

-          Speech from governor Wheeler of RBNZ, Inflation Expectations, Visitor Arrivals and Credit Card Spending for New Zeeland;

-          CB Leading Index, Foreign direct investments and HSBC Flash Manufacturing PMI for China;

-          Wholesale Sales, Retail Sales and Core Retail Sales and CPI with core CPI for Canada;

-          CBI Industrial Order Executions, Second estimates GDP, BBA Mortgage Approvals and Prelim Business Investments for Great Britain;

-          German PPI, German Flash Manufacturing and Services PMI, German final GDP and Consumer Confidence for the Euro Area;

-          Existing Home Sales, Crude Oil Inventories, FOMC Meeting Minutes, Unemployment Claims, Flash Manufacturing PMI, Jackson Hole and New Home Sales for the USA;

Filed Under: Forex Analysis Tagged With: , , , ,

What is to be Expected Next Week for the Forex Market?

By Razvan Mihai

If you are scalper, intraday or guerilla trader, in general short and very short term trader you should pay attention to the economic releases for every day. Keeping an eye over the economic calendar will help prepare your trades or just announce you to stay out of the market.

On Monday Japan will publish its Prelim GDP, estimated to rise 0.9%, and its industrial production. Switzerland will release its retail sales and for the USA the Federal Budget Balance is expected to fall 95.3B.

Tuesday will be more crowded. Japan will publish Core Machinery Orders and the Monetary Policy Meeting Minutes. From the Euro Area we will know the German Final CPI, German ZEW Economic Sentiment (expected to rise at 40.3), the Industrial Production and the ZEW Economic Sentiment. USA will report its Core Retail Sales and Retail Sales, Import Prices and Business Inventories.

Wednesday will start with New Zealand’s Retail Sales and Core Retail Sales and it will continue with Australia’s Westpac Consumer Sentiment. From the Euro Area there will be French and German Prelim GDP, Flash GDP for the Euro Zone. Switzerland will release its PPI and Zew Economic Sentiment, while Great Britain will post the Claimant Count Change, MPC Asset Purchases Facility, MPC Official Rate Bank Votes and Unemployment Rate (which is expected to remain unchanged at 7.8%). USA will publish the monthly PPI, Core PPI and Crude Oil Inventories.

Thursday will bring Retail Sales for Great Britain and for the United States Core CPI and CPI, Unemployment Claims, TIC Long-Term Purchases, Industrial Production, Philly Fed Manufacturing Index and NAHB Housing Market Index.

On Friday the investors will know what is the Current Account, CPI/Core CPI and Trade Balance for the Euro Area. Canada will release its Manufacturing Sales and Foreign Securities Purchases. United States will publish Housing Starts and Prelim UoM Consumer Sentiment.

As you can see, next week is quite full. If you would like to not get caught on the wrong foot you should keep an eye for this publications.

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