Category: Forex

Many of you may have heard about bitcoins but not as many used them. This article is aimed to give you an idea about what bitcoins are and whether you should use them or not.

The Bitcoin or BTC is an e-cash system created by Satoshi Nakamoto which is the name of the group of people who invented this system in 2008 and made it public in 2009. A bitcoin unit is divided down into 8 decimal places thus the smallest amount of a bitcoin unit equals to 0.00000001 satoshi.

The bitcoin or the cryptic currency is a new form of electronic money which are created based on cryptography or with other words, by solving some complex mathematical puzzles. Their number is said to be limited to 21 million and this is because once every 4 years the number of bitcoins that can be generated halves. If in 2009 once every 10 minutes 50 bitcoins were created, now only 25 can be generated and this number tends to 0. Giving this situation, the number of bitcoins is said to be limited. Creating bitcoins is not a job for everyone. The process is too intense for one computer, thus a network of computers working together is called a “miner” which works on a mathematical puzzles in order to generate bitcoins.

Bitcoin is like digital gold. By its design this currency can be created in a limited number as gold exists on a limited amount on earth. The information about those currencies is not stored on a server that can be shuted down or controlled by the government or other financial institutions. Based on a peer-to-peer technology (computer systems connected via the internet which enable files to be directly shared between systems without the need of a central server), the bitcoins can only disappear if the internet is somehow closed. There are the so called “blocks” which store the transactions made using bitcoins. When making such a transaction there is an authomatic check on this blocks in order to avoid double spending of the same bitcoin. There is an entire process which doesn’t allow users to make 2 transactions using one bitcoin. In order to use this technology you have to install a software which creates a wallet (or an address) related only to your computer. While installing the wallet there is a process of synchronizing with the entire network of blocks.

Each bitcoin is a piece of computer code that has been generated through computer processing which is known as “mining”. Each owner transfers the bitcoin to the next beneficiary by digitally signing it. This means that at the end of the bitcoin’s code is added the public key of the person that is going to receive it. There are 2 type of keys, one public that is added to its code when using a bitcoin and the private key which is a secret number saved on your wallet and helps you spend the bitcoin.

There is a lot of talking about bitcoins and whether they may become the next online currency or not. The first advantage could be that it can’t be controlled, on the other hand these transactions may not be as anonymous as they are said to be.

For example, in America, the process of creating your own money is illegal but until now the Feds didn’t run any action against the new currency, considering it too “tender”. Instead, the U.S. is applying the money-laundering rules to the virtual currencies considered to be used for illicit activities (like buying guns or drugs). Even the FBI considers the bitcoin a small threat, but what if it will gain strength over time?

In the last 2 months, the value of a bitcoin increased rapidly. If at the beginning of February the value of a bitcoin was approximately 30$, now its value is close to 160$ on the Mt.Gox market. It looks like people doesn’t trust anymore the currencies which are controlled by the government and prefer to save their money on a digital currency as it is the bitcoin. That is why, when the Cyprus crisis started, the value of the new currency appreciated with 57% against the american dollar within a month.

An interesting view over the idea of creating a digital currency as the bitcoin is the reaction of people to the incredible wave of corruption and fraud committed by central banks which may be accused to have been generated the need for such a currency. There are fears that because of the actions that financial institutions are taking in order to save a country from bankruptcy may lead to even worse consequences. In this case, people are encouraged to put their money safe by buying gold, silver and recently they started thinking of bitcoins as a safe haven asset.

Last week the FOMC statement showed that Federal Reserve officials are still on the Quantitative Easing side. It seems that the QE is expected to be shut down only if the unemployment rate will drop to 6.5% or if the inflation rate will rise 0.5% above the medium target. Keeping in mind that the United States has an unemployment rate at 7.4% we can say that it might take a while until the end of the program or at least until the tapering. On Thursday the unemployment claims surprised with a value of 326K (under estimates) while on Friday the Non-Farm Payrolls came at 162K, with 20K lower than the forecast.

On Thursday the ECB maintained the interest rate a record low 0.50%. The main ideas from Draghi’s press conference were: the ECB will continue to keep low interest rates and high liquidity, will keep the door open for new rate cuts and forecast a slow recovery at the end of the year and in 2014.

The latest economic releases for the Euro Area were mainly above expectations: a lower unemployment rate, higher PMIs for both manufacturing and services sectors and better industrial production for Germany.

Chart: EURUSD, Weekly

Looking at the EURUSD we can see that the pressure is now on the upper line of a symmetrical triangle. Last week was a Doji candle above 1.3200. If this week will close above 1.3345, last week’s high we might see a rally toward 1.34 or why not even higher to 1.35. A false breakout above 1.34 could signal a reversal.

 

If you are scalper, intraday or guerilla trader, in general short and very short term trader you should pay attention to the economic releases for every day. Keeping an eye over the economic calendar will help prepare your trades or just announce you to stay out of the market.

On Monday Japan will publish its Prelim GDP, estimated to rise 0.9%, and its industrial production. Switzerland will release its retail sales and for the USA the Federal Budget Balance is expected to fall 95.3B.

Tuesday will be more crowded. Japan will publish Core Machinery Orders and the Monetary Policy Meeting Minutes. From the Euro Area we will know the German Final CPI, German ZEW Economic Sentiment (expected to rise at 40.3), the Industrial Production and the ZEW Economic Sentiment. USA will report its Core Retail Sales and Retail Sales, Import Prices and Business Inventories.

Wednesday will start with New Zealand’s Retail Sales and Core Retail Sales and it will continue with Australia’s Westpac Consumer Sentiment. From the Euro Area there will be French and German Prelim GDP, Flash GDP for the Euro Zone. Switzerland will release its PPI and Zew Economic Sentiment, while Great Britain will post the Claimant Count Change, MPC Asset Purchases Facility, MPC Official Rate Bank Votes and Unemployment Rate (which is expected to remain unchanged at 7.8%). USA will publish the monthly PPI, Core PPI and Crude Oil Inventories.

Thursday will bring Retail Sales for Great Britain and for the United States Core CPI and CPI, Unemployment Claims, TIC Long-Term Purchases, Industrial Production, Philly Fed Manufacturing Index and NAHB Housing Market Index.

On Friday the investors will know what is the Current Account, CPI/Core CPI and Trade Balance for the Euro Area. Canada will release its Manufacturing Sales and Foreign Securities Purchases. United States will publish Housing Starts and Prelim UoM Consumer Sentiment.

As you can see, next week is quite full. If you would like to not get caught on the wrong foot you should keep an eye for this publications.

Dear Scalper,
Please, rightly choose your Broker!
Sincerely, Investazor

All scalpers, beginners or experienced, need to have an overview of how this area is and how it works. Beyond the scope of making money, known by everybody, it is important to know under what circumstances this passion can be pursued. There are 3 main entities that promote and give access to the trading world: exchange (New York, London, depending on the trading instrument), banks and investment funds (commercial banks) and brokerage houses. Obviously, access is guaranteed depending on the amount of money invested.

A forex scalper will always need to work with a brokerage house in order to have access to a server, a trading platform, quotes and liquidity. Therefore, it is mandatory to rightly choose the broker you work with. In this article you will find out how to choose your broker and to what details you need to pay attention when doing this. Apart from what this person can offer to you as primary conditions to start trading, one big advantage is that if you do not dispose of a big amount of money, a broker can offer lower costs than a bank.

Still, the great job about will be yours, don’t forget that! The broker is only an important factor, willing to give you the possibility, chance and profitability of the forex scalping strategy chosen by the trader. This actor will only create the great environment for your profits, success and gains, while the scalper is fully controlling his / her own time frame for trading, strategies, stop loss and take profit orders.

Technically speaking, what brokerage houses offer to traders are hundreds of offers, depending on his/ her profile. For the day traders and scalpers the business model can be explained simply by the distinction between profit and loss: a tax paid to the broker for his services, on profits and losses. However, the broker remains an important actor contributing to the scalpers success, and this makes the relationship between the two partners a lot deeper than this technical details.

Analyze Spreads And Offers

As we defined this relationship as starting from the business making point of view, it is important to rightly analyze the offer of the brokerage house. At the end of the day, the broker also has to make money according to your profit and loss.

But the goal of the scalper (short and very short term type of trader) is to obtain profit by repeated short transactions, which is way different from the strategies used by medium to long term traders. Since the scalper will open and close tens of positions during a trading day, the costs will be proportional. So, it is desirable to analyze all the brokerage houses’ offers available on the market before choosing the right one as well as choosing the lowest spread for the currency pair you want to trade. The broker himself, will then be only a matter of preference and intuition.

Scalping Is Not For Brokers, It Is For Scalpers!

Apart from being the partner of every client, the broker also has to establish some kind of stability between the scalpers, before passing them to the banks. That is why, most of the times, brokers do not appreciate scalping strategies and brokerage houses do not accept scalpers.

Making it short, because of his mission of netting out trader positions against each other in order to maintain liability against banks, brokers do not find scalpers easy to follow. Given the fact that they enter trades that only last a few minutes and are not constant, brokers lacking experience are not able to counter- balance the profits. Add the lack of speed of the servers and the slow outdated systems used by the brokerage houses, profitable scalpers can become the most redoubtable clients. There are not few the cases when scalpers are not liked by brokers, or brokerage houses do not allow scalpers between its clients, because of this reasons.

That is why, successful scalping strategies are not enough for a good scalper, but he/ she also needs an innovative and technologically competent broker as partner. If you have the chance to find with a no-dealing desk broker, he can be all you need.

Advanced Trading Tools May Be The Key To Success

A good scalper also needs to use improved versions of technical tools, in order to have access to all details he needs existing in the market. For this reason, it is important for scalpers to look for and choose the brokerage houses that offer sophisticated technical packages and show respect for the client’s needs.
Also, it is almost mandatory to have access to simultaneous display of multiple time frames in order to have an overview of all price movements and price action in the same time, in order to have a good money management and to build strong strategical planning.

Last but not least, take care of your eyes’ health and choose the interface and platforms that fit your own needs and pleasures. Feeling comfortable and not having your eyes tired and stressed up after a trading session will give you the force to open new transactions.

Choose Professional Brokers

Scalpers need support from the broker, in order to have timely execution and precise quotes at his/ her disposal. Not only the systems and modern platforms are needed, but also a highly prepared and competent broker to work with. But remember, the broker is there only to support the scalper, who still has to choose the right scalping strategy for him/ her and use strong knowledge in order to achieve long term profit.

 

 

As we wrote in our post “What is to be Expected Next Week for the Forex Market?” this week’s economic calendar will be more crowded starting with Tuesday. Today the most important data came from Japan. It’s GDP rise only 0.6%, despite the expectations of 0.9%.

USDJPY has consolidated between 96.00 and 97.00 after a falling 4.16% from almost 100.00. The drop broke the rejection line of the down trend and started to draw a rectangle. From the current price action the higher probability is on the down side. A 240 minutes candle close under 96.00 could trigger another drop which will target the 94.00 level.

A recovery of the US dollar would mean a breakout above the 97.00 level. If this will occur we should look also for a close, to have a certain confirmation. On this scenario, the upper target sits around 98.50.

Chart: USDJPY, H4

Next is GBPUSD. This currency pair had an interesting evolution during the past moves. The up move was not straight but the price managed to get back to 1.5600. Here it has found a pretty good supply enforced by the round level and a down trend’s line.

Looking at the price action from January 2013 we will observe a consolidation that resembles pretty much with a Descending Triangle. This pattern would be confirmed only by a breakout under its base line or above the upper line. At the current moment the most probable would be a break above the upper line. If the price falls under 1.54 then we should look for a target around the demand area at 1.4840.

Chart: GBPUSD, Daily

A good technical image for AUDUSD would give us the 240 minutes time frame. Here we spot two converging lines that were respected by the fall of the price. On Friday, the trend line was broken, but because the price did not go too far, it was quickly retested today.

At this point we can say that the Australian dollar it is at a cross road. Even though it broke an important line, a fall back under it could signal a false breakout, which will end up with a drop. If the US dollar will not strengthen during the next days we should see a break above the 0.9215, the local resistance, and by the end of the week a retest of the demand/supply area from 0.9300.

Chart: AUDUSD, H4

And we got to the most traded currency pair in nowadays, EURUSD. For the past month the single European currency has gained 5%. The rally seems to have stopped for the moment at 1.3400. The price was bounced back to 1.3300. At this point EURUSD is on thin line. A daily close under 1.33 could start a bigger corrective move, targeting 1.3200 or even lower.

On the other hand if the price will rally back to 1.34, the probability for a breakout from under this level will be even higher.

The trend is up as long as there are no clear reversal signals, but do not forget that the evolution of the US dollar is very sensible to the economic news published for the United States and especially those from the labor market. The better the news, the close Fed will get to tapering and shutting down the Quantitative Easing program.

Chart: EURUSD, Daily

 

What Is Forex?

This is the most common question in a beginners mind: The name Forex comes from foreign exchange and it is specific to currencies market. After the accord from Breton Woods, that took place in 1971, the currencies were allowed to change freely against one another so their value started to vary.

The commercial and investment banks took the opportunity and offered the process of exchange to their clients creating this way a speculative environment for trading on currency against another. The foreign exchange market started to be better known with the help of the internet and the online brokers.

The stock exchange is a regulated market in which you know the traded volume, the traders and why the stock is traded. Forex is an OTC (Over the Counter) market because, simply said, it incorporates every currency exchange done anywhere at any time, so it is pretty hard to regulate something that doesn’t have a headquarters and the trades cannot be registered.

Practically if you want to change dollars for euros you go to the bank and change them, but you can also get some euros for your dollars from a European friend. Both ways you take part in the Forex market, but it doesn’t mean that you can move the Euro – Dollar pair exchanging 100$, 1.000$ or even 1.000.000$. Forex has the biggest amount of money involved every day. As you can see in the chart, an estimate daily volume is about 3.98 trillion dollars, more than on any other regulated exchange.

The biggest players in the Forex market are usually the Commercial Banks followed by investment funds, hedge funds, corporations and brokerage houses. The highest liquidity it is found at the biggest players so if an exchange is needed it can be done with banks with a huge spread (bid/ask difference) if the sum of money is small and with a very small spread if the sum of money is considerable.

Is The Foreign Exchange Market A Necessity ?

Let’s look at this scenario:an US investor would like to invest in another country he would have to use that countries money so he would have to change the US dollars in the other currency. If a company would like to make a purchase of another company from another country it will have to change between currencies and the examples can go on.

Because of the fluctuating value of one currency a money placement would suffer from the currency devaluation so the need to hedge came next. From here it was only one step to speculation. Nowadays speculation is one of the most important features of the Forex market and it is done starting with the biggest players all the way to a retailer.

Banks traded huge amounts of money with low costs. If a retails would like to do the same exchange with a lower volume he will get big costs that eventually will not pay for the bother. For this the financial system invented derivatives like futures and CFDs which gives you the benefit of leverage. Using the leverage with a brokerage house will give the retail not only the possibility to win more, but also lower costs for the trade. Keep always in mind that higher leverage brings bigger wins but also bigger losses.

To conclude if you have a big amount of money to invest the fx market will give you an opportunity to make some profits, but it can do the same for a trader with a smaller account thanks to leverage and brokerage houses which offers this services.

4 Most Common Myths In Trading

Forex trading beginners should know in the first place that less than 20% from all the traders are winners, around 15% are keeping themselves on the breakeven and about 65% are been thrown out of this environment.

Leverage

is one reason to blame for the losses. It is not true, at least not entirely. The leverage increases the possibility of win and loss but as a trader you will always be in charge of your trading volume. The trader can adjust his investment to respect a certain money management. A trader can always cut his losses using tools like Stop Loss and leave his profit pile up if the market runs in his favor. If a trader losses money trading with leverage than he will certain lose money trading without leverage.

News Feed And Information

Are considered to be another factor that sends traders to losing money. Again nothing could be less true. Banks, investment funds and other type of investors have access to the same news and economic data as any other trader or investors. The only difference is the services that are used to get the news. A paid service will give you a head start while a free service will give you the news with a lag. A trader can always adjust his strategy to combat this issue so that it will not be a problem in his day to day trading.

The Money Invested

Will always make a difference between traders. It is well known that there is a higher probability to erase the deposit if the amount is a small one, especially if it comes to a novice trader. When it comes to a professional trader the amount of money invested will not be a problem because he will always know to portion his every trade so that he will put and earn more money on the high probability trades. Each investment fund, bank or private investor has its own money management strategy suited for the investment.

Volatility

Is a factor that should be taken into consideration while trading. Forex market is known for its high liquidity and volatility and sometimes traders blame them for their losses. In fact volatility is the one that helps the professional traders to make more money based of specific strategy. They adjust their system to the market; they modify their strategy and the money management so that the volatility will bring them an important income. Options are usually used in volatile markets.

A trader that has lost money will easily blame the leverage, the lack of information, the market volatility or the fact that he did not have enough money in his trading account. But the main reasons for the loss sit in his lack of knowledge and discipline, not having a strategy that includes a good money management and probably the most important he is driven by his emotions.(we will talk about them in our next articles).

What Should A Beginner Do ?

Even though it seems a very simple and accessible domain in which anyone can invest from as little as 10 bucks to millions of dollars, you should always bear in mind that it involves risks of losing money. Starting your trading experience in Forex could result in empting your account, but the good part is that you can start with a smaller balance than in stock or futures trading.

As a beginner you should better start with an amount of money that you can lose and consider it your education fee.

The experience of trading on real account it does not resemble with the experience of trading on a demo account. The majority of mistakes done by traders are caused by emotions like fear and greed which appear while trading with real money.

 

Euro with the US dollar is the most traded and liquid currency pair at this moment. Its evolution depends on series of factors like economic releases, investments, hedging, speculations and that is why it is important to take into consideration as many aspects as you can, to assure a higher probability for trading.

Last week the Euro Area, especially Germany, reported very good economic indicators. United States started with some good retails sales in the beginning of the week but the Philly Fed and the UoM Economic Sentiment have been a big disappointment in the second part. This last two releases have should have been the fuel for a rally above 1.34.

The price of EURUSD didn’t get to touch the resistance level because of the unemployment claims that came at 320K, value touched in 2007. Good news from the US labor market takes Fed a step closer to ending the Quantitative Easing program, and this good news is actually bad news for investments in the capital market especially for the US capital market.

Chart: EURUSD, H4

The price action of this pair usually tells a trader which of the currencies is bought and which is sold. During the past weeks the main trend was up, meaning that the Euro was mainly bought, while the dollar was sold. After the price hit 1.3400, it was rejected and got back to 1.32. The price pattern that seems to be emerging looks like a Head and Shoulders. It would be confirmed only if EURUSD will get back to 1.32 this week. The second scenario would be a consolidation above 1.33 followed by a break above the key resistance.

To sum up, we have the EURUSD very sensible to the US economic news, especially coming from the labor market and the price action is drawing a Head and Shoulders. For next week we can expect a fall back to 1.3200 if the good news will be published for US economy and a break through 1.3400 if the data will continue to be under estimates.

 

Monday was a pretty chill day for trading. There were not that many economic indicators published and the FX major currencies maintained their trend.

EURUSD remained stable around 1.3340 after a rally fueled by the Bundesbank announcement that they see a recovery for the European Union economy. USDJPY tried several times to remain above 98.00, but it seems that investors are still buying the Japanese yen. The current support sits at 97.00 and a daily close under this level might trigger further appreciation for the Japanese currency. AUDUSD has been in a rectangle for the past week. Its support is around 0.9080 while the resistance is situated at 0.9215. A break outside this box could signal the next move for the aussie. Cable broke 1.56 with the US dollar and seems to be in a steady uptrend. It would be advised to keep an eye over the economic calendar to anticipate the short term corrective waves.

The economic calendar will start to get crowded for the rest of the week. Next on the list to be published are the following:

- Monetary Policy Meeting Minutes and CB Leading index for Australia;

- Speech from governor Wheeler of RBNZ, Inflation Expectations, Visitor Arrivals and Credit Card Spending for New Zeeland;

- CB Leading Index, Foreign direct investments and HSBC Flash Manufacturing PMI for China;

- Wholesale Sales, Retail Sales and Core Retail Sales and CPI with core CPI for Canada;

- CBI Industrial Order Executions, Second estimates GDP, BBA Mortgage Approvals and Prelim Business Investments for Great Britain;

- German PPI, German Flash Manufacturing and Services PMI, German final GDP and Consumer Confidence for the Euro Area;

- Existing Home Sales, Crude Oil Inventories, FOMC Meeting Minutes, Unemployment Claims, Flash Manufacturing PMI, Jackson Hole and New Home Sales for the USA;

The week that just has passed, brought some high volatility on the Forex market, especially in the second part. The ISM Manufacturing and Non-Manufacturing PMIs from the United States surprised with above expectations readings. Draghi has left the door open for a new cut of the interest rate and the Non-Farm Payrolls have disappointed with a lower number than expected.

Date	Currency		Forecast	Previous
MonSep 9	NZD	Manufacturing Sales q/q		0.20%
	JPY	Current Account	0.32T	0.65T
	JPY	Final GDP q/q	1.00%	0.60%
	JPY	Bank Lending y/y		2.00%
	JPY	Final GDP Price Index y/y	-0.30%	-0.30%
	AUD	ANZ Job Advertisements m/m		-1.10%
	AUD	Home Loans m/m	2.20%	2.70%
	CNY	CPI y/y	2.60%	2.70%
	CNY	PPI y/y	-1.70%	-2.30%
	CNY	Trade Balance	20.3B	17.8B
	CNY	New Loans	731B	700B
	CNY	M2 Money Supply y/y	14.60%	14.50%
	JPY	Consumer Confidence	44.3	43.6
	CHF	Unemployment Rate	3.20%	3.20%
	JPY	Economy Watchers Sentiment	53.8	52.3
	CHF	Retail Sales y/y	3.20%	2.30%
	EUR	Sentix Investor Confidence	-4	-4.9
	CAD	Building Permits m/m	4.40%	-10.30%
	USD	Consumer Credit m/m	12.7B	13.8B
TueSep 10	GBP	RICS House Price Balance	38%	36%
	JPY	Monetary Policy Meeting Minutes
	JPY	Tertiary Industry Activity m/m	-0.40%	-0.30%
	JPY	M2 Money Stock y/y	3.80%	3.70%
	AUD	MI Inflation Expectations		2.30%
	AUD	NAB Business Confidence		-3
	JPY	30-y Bond Auction		1.79|4.1
	CNY	Fixed Asset Investment ytd/y	20.20%	20.10%
	CNY	Industrial Production y/y	9.90%	9.70%
	CNY	Retail Sales y/y	13.30%	13.20%
	JPY	Prelim Machine Tool Orders y/y		-12.10%
	EUR	French Industrial Production m/m	0.70%	-1.40%
	GBP	BOE Credit Conditions Survey
	USD	NFIB Small Business Index	94.8	94.1
	CAD	Housing Starts	190K	193K
	USD	JOLTS Job Openings	3.96M	3.94M
WedSep 11	JPY	BSI Manufacturing Index	7.2	5
	JPY	CGPI y/y	2.30%	2.20%
	AUD	Westpac Consumer Sentiment		3.50%
	EUR	French Final Non-Farm Payrolls q/q	-0.20%	-0.20%
	EUR	German Final CPI m/m	0.00%	0.00%
	GBP	Claimant Count Change	-21.2K	-29.2K
	GBP	Average Earnings Index 3m/y	1.30%	2.10%
	GBP	Unemployment Rate	7.80%	7.80%
	EUR	German 10-y Bond Auction		1.80|1.3
	GBP	CB Leading Index m/m		-0.20%
	USD	Wholesale Inventories m/m	0.30%	-0.20%
	USD	Crude Oil Inventories		-1.8M
	GBP	MPC Member Miles Speaks
	USD	10-y Bond Auction		2.62|2.5
ThuSep 12	NZD	Official Cash Rate	2.50%	2.50%
	NZD	RBNZ Press Conference
	NZD	RBNZ Rate Statement
	NZD	RBNZ Monetary Policy Statement
	JPY	Core Machinery Orders m/m	2.50%	-2.70%
	AUD	Employment Change	10.2K	-10.2K
	AUD	Unemployment Rate	5.80%	5.70%
	NZD	REINZ HPI m/m		-0.50%
	EUR	German WPI m/m	0.20%	-0.30%
	EUR	French CPI m/m	0.50%	-0.30%
	EUR	ECB Monthly Bulletin
	EUR	Italian Industrial Production m/m	0.30%	0.30%
	EUR	Industrial Production m/m	-0.10%	0.70%
	GBP	Inflation Report Hearings
	EUR	Italian 10-y Bond Auction
	GBP	10-y Bond Auction		2.58|1.8
	CAD	NHPI m/m	0.20%	0.20%
	USD	Unemployment Claims	332K	323K
	USD	Import Prices m/m	0.60%	0.20%
	USD	Natural Gas Storage		58B
	USD	30-y Bond Auction		3.65|2.1
	USD	Federal Budget Balance	-155.3B	-97.6B
FriSep 13	NZD	Business NZ Manufacturing Index		59.5
	NZD	FPI m/m		0.50%
	JPY	Revised Industrial Production m/m	3.20%	3.20%
	CHF	PPI m/m	0.20%	0.00%
	EUR	Employment Change q/q	-0.20%	-0.50%
	EUR	Trade Balance	15.3B	14.9B
	EUR	ECOFIN Meetings
	EUR	Eurogroup Meetings
	CAD	Capacity Utilization Rate	81.30%	81.10%
	USD	Core Retail Sales m/m	0.30%	0.50%
	USD	PPI m/m	0.20%	0.00%
	USD	Retail Sales m/m	0.50%	0.20%
	USD	Core PPI m/m	0.20%	0.10%
	USD	Prelim UoM Consumer Sentiment	82.6	82.1
	USD	Prelim UoM Inflation Expectations		3.00%
	USD	Business Inventories m/m	0.40%

As you can see, on Monday the most important events will be the Chinese CPI and Trade Balance, as well as the Canadian Building Permits. On Tuesday China will report its Industrial Production which could trigger volatility on the currency pairs which includes the Australian Dollar. Wednesday Great Britain will publish the Claimant Count Change and the Unemployment Rate. On 12th of September New Zealand will release its Official Cash Rate and the RBNZ will have a press conference, Australia will release the Unemployment Rate and the Employment Change and the USA will release the Unemployment Claims for the week. The last day of the week will bring on the table the Core Retail Sales, PPI and the Prelim UoM Consumer Sentiment for the United States.

 

Last week there were a lot of events that triggered interesting moves on the EURUSD. But still, the closing price of Friday was not very far away from the opening price of the week. The currency pair touched a low at 1.3103, after a sudden drop from 1.3220. Friday the dollar started to lose ground again after the Non-Farm payrolls was released, and the week closed at 1.3175.

Chart: EURUSD, H4

This week the economic calendar will be full of publications that could raise the volatility. EURUSD seems to be retesting the down trend line. From here the price might bounce back to 1.3100, and the down trend could continue also below this level. But if we take into consideration the positive divergence that is drawn on the 14 periods RSI, we could expect a breakout above the trend line and above the 1.3200 resistance area.

If the price will fall below 1.3100, the next good support can be found at 1.3000. A round level that was tested a lot this year. If the EURUSD will manage to have a daily close above 1.3220 there will be a high probability for the up move to continue all the way to 1.3300.