Good News Means Bad News, EURUSD Forecast

Good News Means Bad News, EURUSD Forecast

Euro with the US dollar is the most traded and liquid currency pair at this moment. Its evolution depends on series of factors like economic releases, investments, hedging, speculations and that is why it is important to take into consideration as many aspects as you can, to assure a higher probability for trading.

Last week the Euro Area, especially Germany, reported very good economic indicators. United States started with some good retails sales in the beginning of the week but the Philly Fed and the UoM Economic Sentiment have been a big disappointment in the second part. This last two releases have should have been the fuel for a rally above 1.34.

The price of EURUSD didn’t get to touch the resistance level because of the unemployment claims that came at 320K, value touched in 2007. Good news from the US labor market takes Fed a step closer to ending the Quantitative Easing program, and this good news is actually bad news for investments in the capital market especially for the US capital market.

EURUSD, H4
Chart: EURUSD, H4

The price action of this pair usually tells a trader which of the currencies is bought and which is sold. During the past weeks the main trend was up, meaning that the Euro was mainly bought, while the dollar was sold. After the price hit 1.3400, it was rejected and got back to 1.32. The price pattern that seems to be emerging looks like a Head and Shoulders. It would be confirmed only if EURUSD will get back to 1.32 this week. The second scenario would be a consolidation above 1.33 followed by a break above the key resistance.

To sum up, we have the EURUSD very sensible to the US economic news, especially coming from the labor market and the price action is drawing a Head and Shoulders. For next week we can expect a fall back to 1.3200 if the good news will be published for US economy and a break through 1.3400 if the data will continue to be under estimates.

 

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