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Wrap Up 11-15 March 2013 – GBPUSD Up 1.3%

Great Britain

Economic Indicator Actual Forecast Previous
RICS House Price Balance -6% -1% -4%
Manufacturing Production m/m -1.5% 0.0% 1.5
Trade Balance -8.2B -8.8B -8.7B
Industrial Production -1.2% 0.1% 1.1%

The pound has managed to recover a bit from the fall. Last week from 4 economic indicators posted for UK, only the Trade Balance was published over expectations. When the Manufacturing Production and Industrial Production were released the GBPUSD hit the lowest level of the week, at 1.4830.

The comeback was triggered by a declaration of King at an interview with ITV News. He said that: “Markets determine the level of exchange rate, not us”. The pound then rallied to 1.5175 with US Dollar, but closed only at 1.3 percent higher than the opening of the week. This might end up being just a corrective move for the 11% down trend, started almost three months ago.

Next week we will be waiting for some more economic data releases. The most important of them are the CPI expected at 2.8%, PPI expected at 1.6%, Claimant Count Change at -5.2k, MPC Meeting Minutes, Unemployment Rate that is expected to be unchanged (7.8%) and Retail Sales expected to rise at 0.5% from -0.6% last month.


Support: 1.4830

Resistance: 1.5215

The price might try to cover the gap formed last month, meaning that it would have to go over the resistance. This might happen only if the economic data will favor the pound and if the dollar will remain weak. If the price will not close over the resistance, confirming the breakout, we could see a consolidation around 1.5 level.


Wrap Up 11-15 March 2013 – GBPUSD Up 1.3% by