Yesterday economic indicators published for the Euro Area were mixed. The Spanish Manufacturing PMI was published in line with the estimates, 52.8 and the Italian Manufacturing PMI was also in line with analysts’ estimates. These two happened to equilibrate very well the other two positive indicators published. German Unemployment Change was better than official estimates, just like I was anticipating, and the Unemployment Rate for the Euro Zone was 0.1% lower.
My expectations were of in line with this drop. Even though the good news helped a bit the Euro to maintain its position, the actual rally came only at the publication of ISM Manufacturing PMI for the US, which was lower than expected. Overall the price was contain between 1.3745 and 1.3815 at the end of the day.
See yesterday analysis: EUR/USD Forecast And Price Action for April 1st;
Today the Euro was pushed higher before the London opening and the publishing of the Spanish Unemployment Change. Even though this indicator dropped 16.6K, very good news for the Spanish labor market, the price started to drop right at the opening of the Exchange. Continue this article to see what to expect for today and the price action analysis for the EURUSD currency pair.
The following are expected next:
Second day for the ECOFIN Meetings. These are usually held in Brussels and attended by Finance Ministers from EU members states. They discuss a range of financial issues, such as euro support mechanisms and government finances.
US – ADP Non-Farm Employment Change (13:15). This is a quite important indicator of the US labor market. In January it managed to beat expectations, but the following months was with 20K bellow analysts estimated. This month it is expected to be around 192K. If it will exceed these expectations we might see a rally of the US dollar. If it will be published below expectations, we might see a selloff for the dollar.
US – Factory Orders (15:00). This is a medium impact indicator which stands for the change in the total value of new purchases orders placed with manufacturers. In March it dropped 0.7%, but it is expected to gain 1.3% in April. In my opinion it would be pretty difficult to see a number above this.
Today it will be a pretty interesting day considering the fact that everyone is expected for the ADP Non-Farm Change. Since there are no more important indicators for the EU economy we can expect a rise of volatility around US publications.
EUR/USD – Price Action
EURUSD managed to break 1.3800 yesterday and got pretty close to 1.3815, but closed the day bellow the round level. Today investors pushed again and another high was touched at 1.3919, but did not manage to sustain bears pressure. Currently the currency pair is traded around 1.2790. If it will close, on a 60 minutes chart, below 1.3780 we can expect for the price to continue to drop back to 1.3745. Only a break above 1.3815 could signal bulls’ determination to push the Euro towards 1.3880.