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Is Hewlett Packard on the Edge of a 20% Fall?


Chart: HPQ, Daily

The answer for this question is in my opinion, yes!

Hewlett Packard (HPQ) has reported earnings above expectations of 0.87$ per share but the price continued to rise at a moderate pace. Starting with the April low the shares gained over 45%, rising almost 9 bucks.

The power of the bulls dropped with each higher high. And this can be seen in the chart, because it has drawn a Rising Wedge. The pattern was accompanied by a fall in the trading volume which also shows that investors are less interested in this stock.  With some effort the price managed to retreat 38.2(26.50$), Fibonacci retrace, from the main down trend started at 51$ per share in April 2010.

Adding the fact that on the 14 days RSI we can see not only a negative divergence created, but also a symmetrical triangle I would say that we just need a price action confirmation before a 20% drop back to 21$ per share. If on a daily time frame there will be a close under the lower line of the pattern the fall could be imminent.

All the facts are indicating a drop, but do not rush in taking a decision right now. Wait for a breakout and a close under the lower line and you can act. Short selling the stock could be a choice, but if you prefer you could use options to limit your risk in case of a false breakout.

Is Hewlett Packard on the Edge of a 20% Fall? by